February 10, 2026
Macro & Equity Tape
U.S. equities began Tuesday with index futures modestly higher after Monday’s rebound, led by renewed tech/AI leadership and a broad bid for cyclicals. Focus shifts to a heavy data slate, starting with December retail sales alongside import/export prices and NFIB optimism, plus Fed commentary (Hammack, Logan). Rates are coming into the week after a sharp bull-steepening on soft labor indicators late last week; the market is still pricing a meaningful 2026 easing path, while supply is heavy with Treasury auctions across the curve. In FX, the dollar’s pullback has revived commodity-linked leadership—gold and silver bounced materially—while crude remains sensitive to Iran-talk headlines and broader geopolitics.
How Macro Is Showing Up in Thematic Funds
Macro cross-currents are reinforcing a bifurcated tape across themes. Dollar softness and a rebound in metals are supporting precious-metals and related miners, while rate volatility is pushing flows toward duration and defensives in pockets even as equities try to broaden out. AI remains the dominant narrative driver: hyperscaler capex guidance and incremental OpenAI ecosystem headlines are keeping semis and select AI enablers supported, but the software complex remains fragile given persistent ‘AI disruption’ headlines. Meanwhile, crypto beta remains highly sensitive to risk appetite and liquidity conditions, with sharp rotations showing up in both spot crypto and related equity proxies.
Thematic Tail of the Tape
Monday’s session extended Friday’s sharp rebound, with leadership rotating back toward tech/AI and the semis/software complex as investors leaned into the idea that recent software weakness reflects a valuation/positioning reset more than a collapse in fundamentals. Precious metals also reasserted upside as the dollar slipped, and rotation remained active under the surface with cyclicals still finding buyers despite a mixed labor backdrop. The near-term playbook is being set by three moving parts: (1) the retail-sales print and follow-through in rates, (2) the durability of AI capex/monetization signals versus disruption fears in software, and (3) whether commodity strength broadens beyond metals into energy.
What Changed Today?
Two incremental shifts stood out in the briefs. First, the market’s attention moved from ‘run-it-hot’ breadth to an AI-specific re-risking, as fresh OpenAI ecosystem commentary and capex headlines helped stabilize sentiment in semis and select AI beneficiaries. Second, the dollar reversal and metals rebound became more central to the risk narrative, showing up immediately in theme performance dispersion (precious metals and crypto-linked exposures remained the most reactive). With retail sales and a dense macro calendar next, investors are positioning for bigger cross-asset volatility rather than a clean continuation of any single factor trend.
Investment Outlook
Near-term, the base case remains a choppy but constructive tape where breadth can persist as long as growth prints (retail sales/ISM follow-through) are ‘good enough’ and rate volatility stays contained. Thematic allocation should emphasize barbelled exposure: AI infrastructure beneficiaries that are levered to capex realities (semis, data-center hardware, select networking) paired with macro hedges that historically perform in risk-off/rates-down impulses (duration, quality defensives). Areas to stay tactical on include software and crypto—both are headline-sensitive and prone to gap moves—so sizing and entry levels matter. If the data week validates consumption resilience while inflation remains contained, the path of least resistance favors a re-acceleration in cyclical themes; if not, expect leadership to narrow toward duration-sensitive and ‘real asset’ exposures again.
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — Daily Performance
Top 10 Daily Performers
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1-Day % | 1-Month % | YTD Flows |
| WGMI | CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF | +8.41% | -2.64% | $-32,294,000 |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | +8.33% | +5.06% | $-497,805,500 |
| BKCH | Global X Blockchain ETF | +7.16% | -9.59% | $-58,413,792 |
| SILJ | Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF | +5.92% | +13.58% | $620,739,500 |
| IBLC | iShares Blockchain and Tech ETF | +5.83% | -10.74% | $0 |
| URNM | Sprott Uranium Miners ETF | +5.79% | +14.50% | $153,172,300 |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | +5.65% | +11.16% | $1,438,715,955 |
| DAPP | VanEck Digital Transformation ETF | +5.64% | -11.83% | $-11,851,552 |
| BITQ | Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF | +5.42% | -10.25% | $11,851,875 |
| STCE | Schwab Crypto Thematic ETF | +5.36% | -9.56% | $5,073,500 |
Bottom 10 Daily Performers
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1-Day % | 1-Month % | YTD Flows |
| PHO | Invesco Water Resources ETF | -1.29% | +0.42% | $-13,172,310 |
| FIW | First Trust Water ETF | -1.11% | +0.32% | $-5,016,050 |
| PBE | Invesco Biotechnology & Genome ETF | -1.00% | -0.42% | $3,329,010 |
| ITB | iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF | -0.75% | +1.34% | $-113,345,031 |
| BBH | VanEck Biotech ETF | -0.64% | +2.48% | $69,037 |
| JETS | U.S. Global Jets ETF | -0.55% | +5.16% | $19,277,000 |
| SPLV | Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF | -0.48% | +3.90% | $225,147,380 |
| BEDZ | AdvisorShares Hotel ETF | -0.48% | -3.62% | $-1,553,040 |
| HOMZ | Hoya Capital Housing ETF | -0.47% | +0.76% | $0 |
| TOKE | Cambria Cannabis ETF | -0.43% | -4.98% | $230,608 |
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — 1-Month Performance
Top 10 1-Month Performers
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1-Month % | 1-Day % | YTD Flows |
| TAN | Invesco Solar ETF | +16.74% | +1.70% | $383,784,720 |
| KOPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | +14.82% | +5.14% | $1,901,826,684 |
| URNM | Sprott Uranium Miners ETF | +14.50% | +5.79% | $153,172,300 |
| SILJ | Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF | +13.58% | +5.92% | $620,739,500 |
| MLPX | Global X MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF | +12.84% | +1.15% | $33,615,885 |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | +12.68% | +2.54% | $1,417,930,200 |
| ENFR | Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF | +12.53% | +0.92% | $942,500 |
| NANR | State Street SPDR S&P North American Natural Resources ETF | +12.34% | +2.10% | $-3,883,588 |
| PSI | Invesco Semiconductors ETF | +11.98% | +1.34% | $23,464,800 |
| EMIF | iShares Emerging Markets Infrastructure ETF | +11.95% | +1.48% | $1,417,667 |
Bottom 10 1-Month Performers
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1-Month % | 1-Day % | YTD Flows |
| IGV | iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF | -18.99% | +3.15% | $829,710,292 |
| WCLD | WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund | -18.84% | +0.86% | $892,950 |
| CRPT | First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Economy ETF | -18.23% | +3.93% | $1,290,600 |
| XSW | State Street SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF | -17.34% | +1.11% | $-96,946,981 |
| OGIG | ALPS O’Shares Global Internet Giants ETF | -15.15% | +2.22% | $0 |
| ARKW | ARK Next Generation Internet ETF | -14.21% | +3.18% | $-161,765,050 |
| CLOU | Global X Cloud Computing ETF | -13.91% | +0.78% | $-17,117,767 |
| AWAY | Amplify Travel Tech ETF | -13.24% | +0.52% | $-2,100,600 |
| WEED | Roundhill Cannabis ETF | -12.35% | +0.34% | $0 |
| FDIG | Fidelity Crypto Industry and Digital Payments ETF | -12.03% | +4.61% | $-4,693,091 |
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — 1-Month Fund Flows
Top 10 1-Month Inflows
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1-Month Flows | 1-Month % | 1-Day % |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | $5,662,686,711 | +0.07% | +0.49% |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | $3,708,003,951 | +5.90% | +0.73% |
| VUG | Vanguard Growth ETF | $3,240,673,502 | -3.59% | +1.02% |
| VCIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF | $3,215,058,495 | +0.38% | +0.04% |
| BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | $2,944,734,000 | +0.28% | +0.03% |
| SGOV | iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF | $2,293,062,592 | +0.29% | +0.02% |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | $2,250,257,900 | +12.68% | +2.54% |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | $2,090,576,020 | +0.33% | +0.03% |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | $2,090,576,020 | +0.32% | +0.03% |
| KOPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | $1,584,596,337 | +14.82% | +5.14% |
Bottom 10 1-Month Outflows
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1-Month Flows | 1-Month % | 1-Day % |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | $-9,062,042,184 | -0.02% | +0.48% |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | $-1,642,557,324 | -0.08% | -0.02% |
| XBI | State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | $-866,397,153 | +1.29% | +0.48% |
| IYR | iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF | $-698,753,939 | +3.50% | +0.41% |
| KLMN | Invesco MSCI North America Climate ETF | $-672,313,200 | -0.34% | +0.60% |
| EEMV | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Min Vol Factor ETF | $-616,389,800 | +3.68% | +0.46% |
| VTEB | Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF | $-503,769,860 | +0.46% | +0.04% |
| XLRE | State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF | $-473,104,221 | +4.32% | +0.62% |
| VIG | Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF | $-465,126,836 | +2.19% | +0.07% |
| SPMO | Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF | $-367,699,870 | +1.22% | +1.38% |
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — YTD Fund Flows
Top 10 YTD Inflows
| ETF | Theme / Category | YTD Flows | 1-Month % | 1-Day % |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | $7,078,803,580 | +0.07% | +0.49% |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | $4,273,008,573 | +5.90% | +0.73% |
| SGOV | iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF | $4,145,757,758 | +0.29% | +0.02% |
| BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | $3,863,785,000 | +0.28% | +0.03% |
| VCIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF | $3,718,616,636 | +0.38% | +0.04% |
| VUG | Vanguard Growth ETF | $3,063,392,486 | -3.59% | +1.02% |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | $2,849,341,060 | +0.32% | +0.03% |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | $2,849,341,060 | +0.33% | +0.03% |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | $2,564,028,110 | +4.48% | +1.24% |
| KOPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | $1,901,826,684 | +14.82% | +5.14% |
Bottom 10 YTD Outflows
| ETF | Theme / Category | YTD Flows | 1-Month % | 1-Day % |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | $-15,122,730,679 | -0.02% | +0.48% |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | $-2,615,424,447 | -0.08% | -0.02% |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust Series I | $-2,602,866,350 | -1.97% | +0.77% |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | $-2,489,637,543 | +2.56% | +0.70% |
| IYR | iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF | $-977,040,034 | +3.50% | +0.41% |
| VIG | Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF | $-705,213,851 | +2.19% | +0.07% |
| KLMN | Invesco MSCI North America Climate ETF | $-672,313,200 | -0.34% | +0.60% |
| EEMV | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Min Vol Factor ETF | $-616,389,800 | +3.68% | +0.46% |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | $-497,805,500 | +5.06% | +8.33% |
| XLRE | State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF | $-442,663,175 | +4.32% | +0.62% |
Source: FactSet Research Systems, Inc.
