Thursday, February 12, 2026
Source: FactSet
Macro and Policy Backdrop
Overnight risk tone is constructive with S&P futures modestly higher after Wednesday’s mixed cash session and continued dispersion under the surface. Treasury yields are slightly firmer after the post‑payrolls backup, the dollar is little changed, and commodities remain the swing factor: gold and silver are softer after Wednesday’s rebound while crude is steady after the latest Middle East headlines. Today’s macro calendar centers on initial claims, existing home sales, and a $25B 30‑year auction; Friday’s CPI remains the key near‑term catalyst for rates and the equity factor tape.
Equity Tape and Cross‑Currents
Wednesday’s price action reinforced the current regime: index-level moves look muted, but leadership rotates quickly between AI beneficiaries (memory/semis) and AI‑exposed business models (software, select financial intermediaries). The hotter-than-expected January payrolls print put upward pressure on front‑end yields and pushed markets to trim near‑term easing expectations, while a soft 10‑year auction added to the rates volatility. At the same time, earnings remain a stabilizer (S&P 500 growth running roughly low‑teens), even as guidance dispersion widens across tech and cyclicals.
What Changed Today?
Two things tightened the decision tree into Thursday: (1) rates sensitivity increased after the payrolls upside surprise and weak 10‑year demand, raising the bar for duration‑sensitive growth and long‑multiple software; and (2) the AI “competition” narrative continued to broaden beyond software, showing up in pockets of financial services/advisory and data/analytics. Against that, AI capex visibility is still a support for enablers (compute, memory, datacenter power/thermal, networking) and keeps the market’s “broadening” impulse alive even when the cap‑weighted index stalls.
Investment Outlook
Base case remains a barbell: stay exposed to the AI capex supply chain and select pro‑cyclical broadening beneficiaries, while keeping hedges for rates and macro‑shock risk into CPI. Near‑term, watch (a) claims and housing for evidence that recent soft labor/consumption prints were noise, (b) Friday CPI for the next leg in yields and factor leadership, and (c) whether software stabilizes on fundamentals rather than merely oversold positioning. If CPI surprises hot, expect renewed pressure on duration and crowded growth; if CPI cools and yields retrace, a fast rotation back into software and high‑beta thematic baskets is plausible given still‑cleaner positioning.
Thematic Tail of the Tape
- AI infrastructure vs. AI disruption remains the core dispersion engine: memory/semis leadership is supportive, but software remains headline‑fragile.
• Rates are the throttle into CPI: higher yields tighten the runway for long‑duration themes; any cooling print can spark a violent re‑risk.
• Commodities stay two‑way: precious metals are still reacting to positioning/volatility, while crude is tethered to geopolitics.
• Flows matter: persistent inflows into a theme can mask weak price action; persistent outflows can turn drawdowns into air pockets.
Performance and Flows — From Thematic ETF Universe
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — Daily Performance (1‑Day %)
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1‑Day % | 1‑Month % | YTD Flows |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | +4.29% | +5.78% | -$380M |
| FTXL | First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF | +3.65% | +9.71% | +$20M |
| PSI | Invesco Semiconductors ETF | +3.28% | +15.49% | +$31M |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | +2.87% | +14.49% | +$2B |
| GNR | State Street SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources ETF | +2.77% | +15.34% | +$240M |
| NANR | State Street SPDR S&P North American Natural Resources ETF | +2.59% | +15.52% | -$10M |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | +2.50% | +9.56% | +$1B |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | +2.48% | +6.57% | +$3B |
| SILJ | Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF | +2.36% | +15.15% | +$607M |
| SHOC | Strive U.S. Semiconductor ETF | +2.33% | +5.93% | +$5M |
Bottom 10 Daily Performers
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1‑Day % | 1‑Month % | YTD Flows |
| FLYU | MicroSectors Travel 3x Leveraged ETN | -7.24% | -24.01% | +$0 |
| MSOX | AdvisorShares MSOS Daily Leveraged ETF | -5.38% | -32.51% | +$9M |
| CRPT | First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Economy ETF | -4.46% | -24.71% | +$1M |
| XSW | State Street SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF | -3.57% | -19.66% | -$94M |
| WCLD | WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund | -3.53% | -20.37% | -$3M |
| JETS | U.S. Global Jets ETF | -3.27% | +1.36% | +$66M |
| CLOU | Global X Cloud Computing ETF | -3.27% | -16.08% | -$17M |
| DAPP | VanEck Digital Transformation ETF | -3.16% | -16.69% | -$17M |
| FDIG | Fidelity Crypto Industry and Digital Payments ETF | -2.91% | -15.67% | -$8M |
| IBLC | iShares Blockchain and Tech ETF | -2.77% | -15.17% | +$0 |
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — 1‑Month Performance
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1‑Month % | 1‑Day % | YTD Flows |
| KOPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | +16.22% | +2.14% | +$2B |
| TAN | Invesco Solar ETF | +16.06% | -0.36% | +$398M |
| NANR | State Street SPDR S&P North American Natural Resources ETF | +15.52% | +2.59% | -$10M |
| PSI | Invesco Semiconductors ETF | +15.49% | +3.28% | +$31M |
| GNR | State Street SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources ETF | +15.34% | +2.77% | +$240M |
| SILJ | Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF | +15.15% | +2.36% | +$607M |
| MLPX | Global X MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF | +14.73% | +1.14% | +$37M |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | +14.49% | +2.87% | +$2B |
| ENFR | Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF | +14.31% | +1.18% | +$942K |
| URNM | Sprott Uranium Miners ETF | +13.76% | +1.72% | +$175M |
Bottom 10 1‑Month Performers
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1‑Month % | 1‑Day % | YTD Flows |
| MSOX | AdvisorShares MSOS Daily Leveraged ETF | -32.51% | -5.38% | +$9M |
| CRPT | First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Economy ETF | -24.71% | -4.46% | +$1M |
| FLYU | MicroSectors Travel 3x Leveraged ETN | -24.01% | -7.24% | +$0 |
| IGV | iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF | -20.73% | -2.55% | +$782M |
| WCLD | WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund | -20.37% | -3.53% | -$3M |
| XSW | State Street SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF | -19.66% | -3.57% | -$94M |
| DAPP | VanEck Digital Transformation ETF | -16.69% | -3.16% | -$17M |
| MSOS | AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF | -16.63% | -2.46% | +$6M |
| OGIG | ALPS O’Shares Global Internet Giants ETF | -16.37% | -2.11% | +$0 |
| CLOU | Global X Cloud Computing ETF | -16.08% | -3.27% | -$17M |
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — 1‑Month Fund Flows
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1‑Month Flows | 1‑Month % | 1‑Day % |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | +$6B | -0.27% | -0.10% |
| VCIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF | +$4B | +0.45% | -0.08% |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | +$4B | +7.74% | +1.58% |
| VUG | Vanguard Growth ETF | +$3B | -4.48% | -0.44% |
| BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | +$3B | +0.37% | -0.20% |
| SGOV | iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF | +$3B | +0.30% | +0.00% |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | +$3B | +12.83% | +1.13% |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | +$3B | +0.38% | -0.23% |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | +$3B | +0.39% | -0.23% |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | +$2B | +6.57% | +2.48% |
Bottom 10 1‑Month Fund Flows
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1‑Month Flows | 1‑Month % | 1‑Day % |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | -$11B | -0.30% | -0.02% |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust Series I | -$4B | -2.16% | +0.27% |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -$2B | +0.53% | -0.53% |
| KLMN | Invesco MSCI North America Climate ETF | -$672M | -0.58% | -0.16% |
| EEMV | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Min Vol Factor ETF | -$616M | +4.59% | +0.69% |
| IYR | iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF | -$537M | +4.42% | -0.39% |
| VTEB | Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF | -$499M | +0.42% | -0.18% |
| VIG | Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF | -$465M | +2.05% | +0.12% |
| XLRE | State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF | -$454M | +5.68% | -0.09% |
| IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | -$380M | +0.18% | +0.37% |
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — YTD Fund Flows
| ETF | Theme / Category | YTD Flows | 1‑Month % | 1‑Day % |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | +$7B | -0.27% | -0.10% |
| SGOV | iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF | +$5B | +0.30% | +0.00% |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | +$4B | +7.74% | +1.58% |
| VCIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF | +$4B | +0.45% | -0.08% |
| BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | +$4B | +0.37% | -0.20% |
| VUG | Vanguard Growth ETF | +$3B | -4.48% | -0.44% |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | +$3B | +0.38% | -0.23% |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | +$3B | +0.39% | -0.23% |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | +$3B | +6.57% | +2.48% |
| CGDV | Capital Group Dividend Value ETF | +$3B | +2.72% | +0.24% |
Bottom 10 YTD Fund Flows
| ETF | Theme / Category | YTD Flows | 1‑Month % | 1‑Day % |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | -$17B | -0.30% | -0.02% |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust Series I | -$7B | -2.16% | +0.27% |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -$3B | +0.53% | -0.53% |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | -$2B | +1.81% | -0.45% |
| IYR | iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF | -$815M | +4.42% | -0.39% |
| VIG | Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF | -$705M | +2.05% | +0.12% |
| KLMN | Invesco MSCI North America Climate ETF | -$672M | -0.58% | -0.16% |
| EEMV | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Min Vol Factor ETF | -$616M | +4.59% | +0.69% |
| COWZ | Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF | -$441M | +4.05% | +0.88% |
| XLRE | State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF | -$423M | +5.68% | -0.09% |
