The prospective public listings of OpenAI, Anthropic and Perplexity would mark an important transition in the AI investment cycle. For the past several years, public-market investors have largely accessed the generative AI theme through proxies: semiconductors, hyperscale cloud platforms, data-center infrastructure, power equipment, networking, memory, software platforms and the largest technology franchises. The arrival of public AI model companies would add a new layer to the investable universe: direct exposure to the application, model and inference platforms sitting closer to the center of AI adoption.
For thematic ETF investors, this matters because it could materially change portfolio construction. Many AI and innovation ETFs currently lean heavily on Nvidia, Broadcom, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, cloud software, cybersecurity, robotics and automation companies. Those exposures remain highly relevant, but they are still indirect expressions of the AI theme. OpenAI and Anthropic would give thematic products a more direct way to own the economic layer associated with foundation models, enterprise AI subscriptions, developer APIs, AI agents and inference demand. Perplexity, if it eventually lists, would add a separate public-market expression of AI-native search and information discovery.
The first implication is that AI thematic ETFs may become more differentiated. Today, many AI-labeled ETFs have meaningful overlap because the public universe is still concentrated in semiconductors, mega-cap platforms and infrastructure beneficiaries. Public listings of frontier AI companies would allow managers and index providers to separate the AI stack more clearly: chips, cloud infrastructure, data centers, power, enterprise software, AI models and AI applications. That should improve thematic purity for some portfolios, while also increasing dispersion between funds that emphasize infrastructure and those that emphasize application-layer monetization.
The second implication is that active thematic ETFs may have a window of advantage. Rules-based ETFs often need to wait for index eligibility, reconstitution dates, liquidity screens, free-float adjustments and methodology classifications. Active managers can potentially move sooner, size positions more flexibly, and avoid forced buying if valuations appear stretched. That flexibility could matter because the first AI IPOs are likely to be sentiment-defining events. Strong debuts would reinforce investor confidence in the AI growth narrative, while weak aftermarket trading could raise questions about valuation, margin structure and capital intensity across the broader AI complex.
The third implication is that the AI trade is likely to broaden rather than simply rotate. Direct AI listings would not necessarily diminish the case for semiconductors, data centers or power infrastructure. In many ways, they would validate the magnitude of the infrastructure cycle. Anthropic’s financing package for chip purchases underscores that frontier AI companies are not asset-light software businesses in the traditional sense. They are major consumers of compute, energy, networking and capital. As a result, thematic exposure to AI infrastructure, grid modernization, data-center REITs, electrical equipment, cooling, natural gas, uranium and copper could remain central to the investment narrative.
The fourth implication is that valuation discipline will become more important. Public AI companies would likely command premium multiples, but investors will have to underwrite difficult questions: inference costs, gross margins, customer concentration, cloud-provider dependence, regulatory risk, model commoditization, capital needs and the pace of enterprise adoption. The IPO wave may broaden access, but it will also force greater transparency around the economics of the AI model layer. That transparency could either strengthen the bull case or expose the gap between revenue growth and durable profitability.
For thematic investors, the conclusion is constructive but nuanced. The public listing of AI model companies would deepen the investable opportunity set, improve thematic purity and create new benchmarks for valuing the AI ecosystem. However, it would also increase the importance of ETF selection. Investors should not assume that every AI ETF will capture the same opportunity. Some funds will remain chip-heavy. Others will tilt toward cloud, automation, robotics, cybersecurity or software. Over time, the strongest products may be those that balance direct AI platform exposure with the infrastructure companies required to scale the theme.
The AI IPO wave is therefore not just a capital-markets event. It is a thematic-index construction event. It could change what investors mean when they say they own AI.
Public AI Fund Universe: Flows Already Validating the Theme
The current AI-themed ETF universe shows that investor demand has already broadened beyond the largest semiconductor and mega-cap platform proxies. Across the explicit AI, robotics, automation and AI software funds in the database, assets total roughly $40.0B, with approximately $5.1B of YTD net inflows. The strongest asset bases remain concentrated in BAI and AIQ, while ARTY, TCAI and BAI show the clearest combination of strong performance and positive flow momentum. That backdrop supports the broader editorial point: the OpenAI, Anthropic and Perplexity IPO cycle may not create the AI trade from scratch, but it could materially improve the purity, breadth and indexability of public AI exposure.
| Ticker | Fund | AUM ($B) | YTD Flows ($M) | Performance |
| BAI | iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF | 14.2 | 2,390.7 | 37.40% |
| AIQ | Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF | 10.5 | 1,217.0 | 25.19% |
| BOTZ | Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF | 3.6 | 248.3 | 4.32% |
| ARTY | iShares Future AI & Tech ETF | 3.6 | 577.7 | 49.03% |
| ARKQ | ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF | 2.2 | 261.3 | 15.09% |
| ROBO | ROBO Global Robotics & Automation Index ETF | 2.0 | 382.0 | 19.42% |
| PSJ | Invesco AI and Next Gen Software ETF | 1.1 | 114.1 | N/A |
| IVES | Dan IVES Wedbush AI Revolution ETF | 1.1 | -41.5 | 14.83% |
| IETC | iShares U.S. Tech Independence Focused ETF | 0.8 | -196.7 | 3.39% |
| ROBT | First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence & Robotics ETF | 0.7 | 8.5 | 4.49% |
| TCAI | Tortoise AI Infrastructure ETF | 0.2 | 120.7 | 65.04% |
| Total / Weighted Avg. | 40.0 | 5,082.2 | 28.13% |
Performance reflects 6M returns from the ETFThemes.com thematic ETF database.
Sources
- June 9 StreetAccount headline/news packet, including OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing, Anthropic’s IPO filing and chip-financing package, Perplexity’s 2028 IPO plan, Applied Digital’s AI data-center deal, and broader AI infrastructure headlines.
- June 9 thematic ETF return and flow database, including AI-themed ETF AUM, YTD flows and performance data.
- Reuters reporting on OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing, Anthropic’s IPO filing, valuation context and the broader AI IPO race.
- Reuters/CNBC reporting on Perplexity’s plan to pursue a 2028 IPO.
- Reuters reporting on Applied Digital’s $5.2B AI data-center lease, supporting the AI infrastructure read-through.
- Nasdaq methodology commentary on faster entry for large newly public companies into Nasdaq-100-style index exposure.
- Reuters reporting on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ review of IPO eligibility rules as mega-IPOs loom.
Disclaimer: This material is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation to engage in any investment strategy. ETF flows, assets under management and performance figures are based on source data believed to be reliable but have not been independently verified. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Thematic ETFs may involve higher volatility, concentration risk and sensitivity to changes in investor sentiment, valuation, regulation, index methodology and technology adoption. Investors should consult their own financial, tax and legal advisers before making investment decisions.
