Tuesday, Feb 6, 2026
S&P 500 futures are up ~0.3% Friday morning after a >1% overnight drawdown, attempting to stabilize following Thursday’s risk-off pressure (S&P -1.23%, Nasdaq -1.59%, R2K -1.79%). Thursday’s macro impulse was decisively labor-softening: JOLTS openings sank to 6.54M (lowest since Sep-2020) and initial claims rose to 231K, reinforcing the “growth is cooling” narrative and driving a bull-steepening rally in Treasuries (front-end yields down ~9–10 bp). The USD remains firm (DXY +0.3% Thursday; strongest week since Oct trend), while high-vol assets (crypto, silver) saw another leg lower. Today’s key macro print is prelim U. Michigan sentiment/inflation expectations (10:00 ET).
How macro is impacting thematic performance
- Rates impulse (bull steepening): supportive for duration-sensitive themes in theory, but software is being treated as “AI-disrupted,” not “rate-sensitive.” That’s why the group is still trading heavy even as the front-end rallies.
- USD strength: historically a headwind for commodity-linked and EM-sensitive themes; it also tends to compress risk appetite for high-vol thematic baskets.
- AI capex vs. AI disruption bifurcation: infrastructure beneficiaries (select semis/compute, power & electrification adjacencies) are being separated from “AI-exposed” software/business models.
- Crypto drawdown: tightening risk sentiment for retail-favored thematic complexes; watch for spillover into innovation/high-beta ETF flows.
Thematic “Tail of the Tape”
Positioning and narrative are doing more work than fundamentals right now. Labor-softening is pulling rates down and should broaden the playbook beyond pure cyclicals, but software is still being repriced as structurally challenged by faster model iteration (Claude/Codex headlines), which is also bleeding into financial-data and private-credit-adjacent sentiment. In contrast, AI infrastructure spend remains the anchor (capex guides keep resetting higher), supporting semis/compute even on red index days. The next clean catalyst is whether inflation expectations roll over (UMich) without a rebound in growth fears—because that’s the path to lower rates + improving risk appetite rather than lower rates + recession hedging.
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — Daily Performance
Top 10 Daily Performers
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1-Day % | 1-Month % | YTD Flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSI | Semiconductors | +1.37% | +7.4% | +$2.1B |
| TLT | Long-Duration Treasuries | +1.09% | +4.2% | +$12.4B |
| XSMO | Small-Cap Momentum | +0.74% | +9.2% | +$1.3B |
| IEF | Intermediate Treasuries | +0.59% | +3.1% | +$8.1B |
| PKB | Homebuilders / Construction | +0.58% | +7.9% | +$2.4B |
| UMI | Energy Infrastructure | +0.56% | +6.8% | +$1.2B |
| EMIF | EM Infrastructure | +0.56% | +5.9% | +$1.6B |
| TPYP | Pipelines | +0.50% | +6.2% | +$1.4B |
| EAGG | ESG Aggregate Bonds | +0.48% | +2.6% | +$0.9B |
| XMMO | Mid-Cap Momentum | +0.45% | +8.6% | +$1.1B |
Bottom 10 Daily Performers
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1-Day % | 1-Month % | YTD Flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRPT | Crypto / Digital Assets | -16.97% | -18.4% | -$4.5B |
| SLV | Silver | -15.77% | -24.8% | -$7.6B |
| ETHA | Ethereum | -13.95% | -22.6% | -$6.9B |
| ETHE | Ethereum | -13.93% | -22.4% | -$6.7B |
| FETH | Ethereum | -13.89% | -22.2% | -$6.6B |
| BKCH | Blockchain | -13.39% | -18.8% | -$4.9B |
| BITO | Bitcoin | -13.30% | -19.9% | -$9.8B |
| BTC | Bitcoin | -13.28% | -19.6% | -$5.4B |
| BITB | Bitcoin | -13.25% | -19.7% | -$4.1B |
| FBTC | Bitcoin | -13.22% | -19.6% | -$3.9B |
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — 1-Month Performance
Top 10 1-Month Performers
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1-Month % | 1-Day % | YTD Flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XSMO | Small-Cap Momentum | +9.2% | +0.74% | +$1.3B |
| XMMO | Mid-Cap Momentum | +8.6% | +0.45% | +$1.1B |
| PKB | Homebuilders | +7.9% | +0.58% | +$2.4B |
| PSI | Semiconductors | +7.4% | +1.37% | +$2.1B |
| UMI | Energy Infrastructure | +6.8% | +0.56% | +$1.2B |
| TPYP | Pipelines | +6.2% | +0.50% | +$1.4B |
| EMIF | EM Infrastructure | +5.9% | +0.56% | +$1.6B |
| XHB | Homebuilders | +5.6% | +0.32% | +$2.9B |
| IAI | Broker-Dealers | +5.3% | +0.21% | +$0.8B |
| XLI | Industrials | +5.1% | +0.18% | +$1.9B |
Bottom 10 1-Month Performers
| ETF | Theme / Category | 1-Month % | 1-Day % | YTD Flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLV | Silver | -24.8% | -15.77% | -$7.6B |
| ETHA | Ethereum | -22.6% | -13.95% | -$6.9B |
| ETHE | Ethereum | -22.4% | -13.93% | -$6.7B |
| FETH | Ethereum | -22.2% | -13.89% | -$6.6B |
| BITO | Bitcoin | -19.9% | -13.30% | -$9.8B |
| BITB | Bitcoin | -19.7% | -13.25% | -$4.1B |
| FBTC | Bitcoin | -19.6% | -13.22% | -$3.9B |
| BKCH | Blockchain | -18.8% | -13.39% | -$4.9B |
| CRPT | Crypto | -18.4% | -16.97% | -$4.5B |
| SIL | Silver Miners | -17.9% | -9.4% | -$3.8B |
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — YTD Fund Flows
Top 10 YTD Inflows
| ETF | Theme / Category | YTD Flows | 1-Month % | 1-Day % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | Long Treasuries | +$12.4B | +4.2% | +1.09% |
| IEF | Intermediate Treasuries | +$8.1B | +3.1% | +0.59% |
| XHB | Homebuilders | +$2.9B | +5.6% | +0.32% |
| PKB | Construction | +$2.4B | +7.9% | +0.58% |
| PSI | Semiconductors | +$2.1B | +7.4% | +1.37% |
| XLI | Industrials | +$1.9B | +5.1% | +0.18% |
| EMIF | EM Infrastructure | +$1.6B | +5.9% | +0.56% |
| TPYP | Pipelines | +$1.4B | +6.2% | +0.50% |
| XSMO | Small-Cap Momentum | +$1.3B | +9.2% | +0.74% |
| XMMO | Mid-Cap Momentum | +$1.1B | +8.6% | +0.45% |
Bottom 10 YTD Outflows
| ETF | Theme / Category | YTD Flows | 1-Month % | 1-Day % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BITO | Bitcoin | -$9.8B | -19.9% | -13.30% |
| SLV | Silver | -$7.6B | -24.8% | -15.77% |
| ETHA | Ethereum | -$6.9B | -22.6% | -13.95% |
| ETHE | Ethereum | -$6.7B | -22.4% | -13.93% |
| FETH | Ethereum | -$6.6B | -22.2% | -13.89% |
| BKCH | Blockchain | -$4.9B | -18.8% | -13.39% |
| CRPT | Crypto | -$4.5B | -18.4% | -16.97% |
| SIL | Silver Miners | -$3.8B | -17.9% | -9.4% |
| COPX | Copper Miners | -$3.1B | -14.2% | -6.8% |
| URA | Uranium | -$2.9B | -13.7% | -5.9% |
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems, Inc.
