Tuesday, February 5, 2026
S&P 500 futures +0.2% early Thursday after Wednesday’s mixed session (Dow +0.53%, S&P -0.51%, Nasdaq -1.51%, Russell 2000 -0.90%) where equal-weight outperformed again while concentrated tech/AI pressure kept the cap-weighted indices pinned. Semi weakness remained a focal point, while the software complex stabilized off lows.
Macro data (Wed):
- ADP private payrolls +22K (vs ~+45K est.), with gains concentrated in education/health and contraction in professional/business services.
- ISM Services 53.8 (in-line), but new orders and employment cooled while remaining expansionary.
- Treasury refunding: auction sizes unchanged (in-line).
Rates steepened modestly; the dollar was firmer, and commodity volatility stayed elevated.
Thematic Lens on the Tape
Thematic trading stayed bifurcated: AI “builders” and cyclicals held up better than AI “enablers” tied to crowded positioning, while software’s AI-disruption drawdown continued to leak into adjacent risk buckets (private credit/fin-data sensitivity). The dollar’s stabilization and rate volatility kept duration-sensitive innovation themes choppy, even as broader breadth improved. Precious metals remained headline-driven—more positioning shakeout than narrative reversal—while energy and industrial-linked themes tracked geopolitics and “run-it-hot” growth framing. Net: flows favored liquidity and core beta, while higher-vol thematic sleeves traded tactically around macro prints.
How macro is showing up in thematic performance
- “Broadening” helps thematic breadth (more non-tech participation), but index-level tape still hostage to mega-cap/AI downdrafts.
- Rates + dollar stability = tougher backdrop for long-duration “concept” baskets; more support for cash-flow/asset-backed themes.
- Commodity volatility is driving sharp factor rotations inside real assets themes (metals vs miners vs producers).
FactSet Thematic ETF Dashboard (ex-levered ETFs)
Tables use your attached universe file (/mnt/data/20260205_theme_data.xlsx).
Top / Bottom 10 — Daily Performers (1D return + 1D flows)
Top 10 (1D)
| Rank | Ticker | Theme / Category | 1D Return | Flows | AUM |
| 1 | WEED | Roundhill Cannabis ETF | 2.94% | $1M | $0.0B |
| 2 | PBW | Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF | 2.90% | $3M | $0.3B |
| 3 | SLV | iShares Silver Trust | 2.88% | $41M | $19.0B |
| 4 | SIL | Global X Silver Miners ETF | 2.67% | $4M | $2.4B |
| 5 | LIT | Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF | 2.65% | $8M | $2.7B |
| 6 | TAN | Invesco Solar ETF | 2.61% | $28M | $2.0B |
| 7 | MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 2.48% | $27M | $0.7B |
| 8 | COPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | 2.39% | $12M | $1.9B |
| 9 | XME | SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF | 2.38% | $18M | $4.7B |
| 10 | IYT | iShares Transportation Average ETF | 2.29% | $8M | $1.0B |
Bottom 10 (1D)
| Rank | Ticker | Theme / Category | 1D Return | Flows | AUM |
| 1 | URA | Global X Uranium ETF | -5.06% | -$7M | $4.0B |
| 2 | ARKK | ARK Innovation ETF | -4.94% | -$66M | $6.6B |
| 3 | GBTC | Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) | -4.61% | -$24M | $20.8B |
| 4 | BITO | ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF | -4.23% | -$48M | $1.7B |
| 5 | IBIT | iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | -4.05% | -$156M | $41.9B |
| 6 | BLOK | Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF | -3.75% | -$3M | $0.8B |
| 7 | ARKW | ARK Next Generation Internet ETF | -3.73% | -$12M | $1.8B |
| 8 | BOTZ | Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF | -3.65% | -$9M | $2.5B |
| 9 | SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | -3.56% | -$143M | $24.7B |
| 10 | SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | -3.50% | -$103M | $10.8B |
Top / Bottom 10 — 1-Month Performers (1M return + 1M flows)
Top 10 (1M)
| Rank | Ticker | Theme / Category | 1M Return | Flows | AUM |
| 1 | SIL | Global X Silver Miners ETF | 14.31% | $155M | $2.4B |
| 2 | SLV | iShares Silver Trust | 13.62% | $868M | $19.0B |
| 3 | COPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | 13.09% | $62M | $1.9B |
| 4 | XME | SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF | 10.79% | $137M | $4.7B |
| 5 | URNM | Sprott Uranium Miners ETF | 10.64% | $121M | $1.9B |
| 6 | URA | Global X Uranium ETF | 10.59% | $230M | $4.0B |
| 7 | TAN | Invesco Solar ETF | 9.93% | $279M | $2.0B |
| 8 | LIT | Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF | 9.65% | $48M | $2.7B |
| 9 | IYT | iShares Transportation Average ETF | 9.45% | $47M | $1.0B |
| 10 | ITA | iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF | 9.16% | $38M | $6.7B |
Bottom 10 (1M)
| Rank | Ticker | Theme / Category | 1M Return | Flows | AUM |
| 1 | IGV | iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF | -18.30% | -$608M | $8.2B |
| 2 | FBTC | Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund | -18.28% | -$250M | $9.5B |
| 3 | GBTC | Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) | -17.37% | -$316M | $20.8B |
| 4 | ARKK | ARK Innovation ETF | -16.92% | -$976M | $6.6B |
| 5 | BITO | ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF | -16.83% | -$334M | $1.7B |
| 6 | IBIT | iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | -16.54% | -$1,492M | $41.9B |
| 7 | ARKW | ARK Next Generation Internet ETF | -15.62% | -$260M | $1.8B |
| 8 | BLOK | Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF | -14.98% | -$38M | $0.8B |
| 9 | BOTZ | Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF | -14.35% | -$64M | $2.5B |
| 10 | SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | -13.49% | -$840M | $24.7B |
Top / Bottom 10 — YTD Fund Flows (YTD flows + context returns)
Top 10 (YTD inflows)
| Rank | Ticker | Theme / Category | YTD Flows | 1M Return | 1D Return | AUM |
| 1 | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | $8,491M | 0.29% | -0.58% | $540.8B |
| 2 | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | $5,034M | 2.59% | -0.16% | $76.6B |
| 3 | IWD | iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF | $4,269M | 2.92% | -0.24% | $58.2B |
| 4 | IAU | iShares Gold Trust | $4,003M | 6.42% | 1.56% | $41.7B |
| 5 | HYG | iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | $3,394M | -0.38% | -0.44% | $17.5B |
| 6 | VEA | Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | $2,779M | 2.14% | -0.25% | $135.6B |
| 7 | BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | $2,616M | -0.19% | -0.05% | $325.5B |
| 8 | AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | $2,461M | 0.03% | -0.02% | $112.4B |
| 9 | IEMG | iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | $2,182M | 2.43% | -0.13% | $83.9B |
| 10 | GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | $2,050M | 6.51% | 1.49% | $84.7B |
Bottom 10 (YTD outflows)
| Rank | Ticker | Theme / Category | YTD Flows | 1M Return | 1D Return | AUM |
| 1 | SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | -$10,924M | 0.44% | -0.48% | $531.5B |
| 2 | IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | -$3,439M | 4.72% | -0.50% | $74.1B |
| 3 | QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust Series I | -$2,824M | -1.20% | -1.33% | $281.0B |
| 4 | TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -$2,755M | -0.18% | -0.16% | $49.4B |
| 5 | IGV | iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF | -$1,020M | -18.30% | -2.17% | $8.2B |
| 6 | FBTC | Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund | -$904M | -18.28% | -4.05% | $9.5B |
| 7 | VIG | Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF | -$764M | 2.69% | -0.09% | $89.8B |
| 8 | IYR | iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF | -$732M | 2.52% | 0.17% | $29.8B |
| 9 | KLMN | Invesco MSCI North America Climate ETF | -$672M | -0.33% | -0.12% | $4.0B |
| 10 | EEMV | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Min Vol Factor ETF | -$603M | 3.46% | -0.07% | $10.5B |
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems, Inc.
