Tuesday, Feb 3, 2026
S&P 500 futures: +0.2% in Tuesday morning trading, extending Monday’s rebound tone.
Prior session (Mon) recap: U.S. equities finished higher (Dow +1.05%, S&P 500 +0.54%, Nasdaq +0.56%, Russell 2000 +1.02%) with cyclical leadership and a notable split inside Tech: semis continued to outperform software (another ~200 bp gap). Rates backed up modestly at the front end (bear-flattening), the USD extended its rebound, and crypto stayed heavy (BTC futures back below ~$80K). Commodities were mixed: oil sold off sharply on U.S.–Iran talks headlines, while gold/silver remained volatile after last week’s positioning shakeout.
Macro data & policy lens (from the notes):
- ISM Manufacturing jumped back into expansion (52.6, highest since mid-2022) with new orders surging to the strongest level since early-2022—reinforcing the “growth resilience” narrative.
- Fed pricing edged more hawkish vs late last week (cuts still roughly ~47 bp this year in your tape).
- SLOOS showed tighter C&I standards alongside firmer demand from larger firms—consistent with selective credit restraint rather than broad stress.
- Government shutdown continues to distort the calendar (notably the delay to JOLTS and the January jobs report per BLS).
- Overseas, RBA delivered a 25 bp hike (supporting AUD), while Asian risk sentiment firmed with tech-sensitive markets leading.
Thematic Lens on the Tape
Monday’s tape reinforced a “real economy + AI infrastructure” mix for thematic investors: cyclicals and transports participated while semis again beat software, suggesting the market still prefers picks-and-shovels AI over application-layer duration. The stronger USD and front-end yield backup coincided with continued pressure in crypto-linked themes, even as broader AI sentiment stabilized after weekend headlines around large OpenAI funding figures. Meanwhile, oil’s sharp drop on U.S.–Iran talk headlines undercut traditional energy beta, while precious metals stayed volatile—more consistent with a positioning reset than a clean narrative reversal. Net: leadership stayed broad, but not uniform across Technology Themes.
Flows and Performance Across our Universe of ~300 Thematic Equity ETFs:
Top / Bottom 10 – Daily Performance (1-Day % Return)
Top 10 Gainers
| Ticker | Theme | 1D % | 1M % | 1D Flow ($M) | 1M Flow ($M) | YTD Flow ($M) |
| JETS | Airlines | 3.51 | 2.26 | -19.6 | 20.5 | 20.5 |
| FTXL | Semiconductors | 2.66 | 14.80 | 0.0 | 20.2 | 20.2 |
| PSI | Semiconductors | 2.47 | 15.02 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 11.2 |
| SBIO | Breakthrough Healthcare | 2.46 | 4.69 | 0.0 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| PKB | Homebuilders | 2.14 | 5.69 | 3.0 | 71.0 | 72.0 |
| XSD | Semiconductors | 2.09 | 5.54 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 0.7 |
| XBI | Biotech | 2.08 | 4.80 | -102.9 | 189.2 | 204.5 |
| BEDZ | Hotels & Leisure | 1.94 | -1.17 | 0.0 | -1.6 | -1.6 |
| SOXX | Semiconductors | 1.85 | 12.43 | -155.7 | 672.8 | 657.7 |
| SMH | Semiconductors | 1.12 | 9.29 | 80.6 | 2,307.3 | 2,343.3 |
Bottom 10 Laggards
| Ticker | Theme | 1D % | 1M % | 1D Flow ($M) | 1M Flow ($M) | YTD Flow ($M) |
| ETHA | Ethereum | -13.24 | -25.78 | -157.2 | -325.6 | -347.1 |
| ETHE | Ethereum | -13.23 | -25.72 | 0.0 | -95.4 | -95.4 |
| FETH | Ethereum | -13.17 | -25.64 | -95.7 | -72.4 | -74.6 |
| FBTC | Bitcoin | -7.03 | -13.17 | 7.3 | -841.9 | -908.5 |
| GBTC | Bitcoin | -6.96 | -13.29 | 0.0 | -449.6 | -518.7 |
| BITB | Bitcoin | -6.97 | -13.24 | 0.0 | -61.1 | -74.9 |
| ARKB | Bitcoin | -6.94 | -13.16 | 8.3 | -150.8 | -227.3 |
| BITO | Bitcoin | -6.90 | -13.39 | 16.5 | 392.9 | 398.4 |
| IBIT | Bitcoin | -6.89 | -13.19 | -528.3 | -136.6 | -235.6 |
| GLD | Gold | -4.00 | 7.24 | 0.0 | 3,323.2 | 2,570.6 |
Top / Bottom 10 – 1-Month Performance
Top 10 (1-Month)
| Ticker | Theme | 1M % | 1D % | 1M Flow ($M) | YTD Flow ($M) |
| SOXX | Semiconductors | 12.43 | 1.85 | 672.8 | 657.7 |
| XSD | Semiconductors | 5.54 | 2.09 | 8.8 | 0.7 |
| URNM | Uranium Miners | 18.61 | -3.58 | 160.4 | 160.4 |
| KOPX | Copper Miners | 16.62 | 0.46 | 1,778.4 | 1,858.6 |
| URA | Uranium | 15.65 | -3.13 | 645.8 | 645.9 |
| SILJ | Silver Miners | 14.83 | -0.88 | 659.2 | 659.2 |
| FTXL | Semiconductors | 14.80 | 2.66 | 20.2 | 20.2 |
| ROKT | Space & Defense | 12.47 | -1.20 | 16.9 | 17.7 |
| PSI | Semiconductors | 15.02 | 2.47 | 12.0 | 11.2 |
| SMH | Semiconductors | 9.29 | 1.12 | 2,307.3 | 2,343.3 |
Bottom 10 (1-Month)
| Ticker | Theme | 1M % | 1D % | 1M Flow ($M) | YTD Flow ($M) |
| SOXS | Semiconductor Bear | -32.73 | -6.09 | 526.8 | 521.7 |
| ETHA | Ethereum | -25.78 | -13.24 | -325.6 | -347.1 |
| ETHE | Ethereum | -25.72 | -13.23 | -95.4 | -95.4 |
| FETH | Ethereum | -25.64 | -13.17 | -72.4 | -74.6 |
| WEED | Cannabis | -17.16 | -0.71 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| MSOS | Cannabis | -14.61 | 1.49 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| MJ | Cannabis | -14.33 | 0.72 | -3.0 | -3.0 |
| CNBS | Cannabis | -14.09 | 0.45 | -2.8 | -2.8 |
| BITO | Bitcoin | -13.39 | -6.90 | 392.9 | 398.4 |
| YOLO | Cannabis | -13.30 | 1.06 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
Top / Bottom 10 – YTD Fund Flows
Top 10 Inflows (YTD)
| Ticker | Theme | YTD Flow ($M) | 1M % |
| VTI | US Equity | 5,696 | 1.83 |
| EEM | EM Equity | 4,273 | 5.41 |
| VCIT | IG Credit | 3,660 | 0.13 |
| BND | Bonds | 3,471 | 0.16 |
| AGG | Bonds | 2,680 | 0.16 |
| GLD | Gold | 2,571 | 7.24 |
| SMH | Semiconductors | 2,343 | 9.29 |
| KOPX | Copper Miners | 1,859 | 16.62 |
| URA | Uranium | 646 | 15.65 |
| SILJ | Silver Miners | 659 | 14.83 |
Bottom 10 Outflows (YTD)
| Ticker | Theme | YTD Flow ($M) | 1M % |
| SPY | US Equity | -10,679 | 1.79 |
| IWM | Small Caps | -4,920 | 5.39 |
| TLT | Treasuries | -2,763 | -0.17 |
| SOXL | Semiconductors | -5,905 | 38.02 |
| FBTC | Bitcoin | -909 | -13.17 |
| IGV | Software | -740 | -12.77 |
| VIG | Dividends | -778 | 2.55 |
| KLMN | Climate | -664 | 1.50 |
| EEMV | EM Min Vol | -603 | 3.70 |
| ARKB | Bitcoin | -227 | -13.16 |
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems, Inc.
