Mon, Feb 2, 2026
Macro & Equity Setup
S&P futures -0.6% / Nasdaq futures -0.9% in Monday morning trading following Friday’s risk-off close. Overnight: Asia sharply lower (South Korea -5% worst performer; Hong Kong/China -2%+), Europe -0.2%, Treasuries firmer (yields ~4 bp lower at the long end), DXY +0.1%, gold -1.1%, silver +2.0%, bitcoin -7.2%, WTI -4.5%.
Prior Session Recap (Fri, Jan 30)
Equities finished lower (S&P -0.43%, Nasdaq -0.94%, Russell -1.55%) with pressure concentrated in tech (semis, software), high-beta/momentum, small caps, and precious-metals miners. Cross-asset was the story: DXY +0.8%, while gold fell -11.4% and silver -31.4% (historic moves), consistent with a positioning-driven unwind after a parabolic run.
Macro Data & Calendar
- PPI (Dec): headline +0.5% m/m vs +0.25% consensus; core +0.7% m/m vs +0.2% (services led).
- Chicago PMI (Jan): 54.0 (first expansion reading after a long sub-50 stretch).
- Today: ISM Manufacturing (consensus 48.5 vs 47.9 prior), Fed speaker (Bostic), and Treasury quarterly borrowing estimates later today.
Thematic Lens on the Tape
Today’s thematic tape remains dominated by positioning shakeouts and macro cross-currents rather than single-theme fundamentals. Friday’s Warsh Fed-chair nomination narrative and hotter PPI reinforced a stronger-dollar impulse, which coincided with a historic unwind in precious metals and related miners—still the key volatility driver into Monday. Growth and “AI beta” are more mixed: hardware/AI-capex narratives remain intact, but software continues to de-rate on competition and monetization uncertainty, keeping dispersion high within AI. Meanwhile, energy and select defensives are holding up better as crude and geopolitical headlines stay in play, even as broader risk appetite softens.
Friday’s tape was a macro-volatility event for thematic investors: precious metals and miners broke sharply as the USD rebounded and crowded positioning unwound, producing extreme dispersion and dragging risk appetite broadly. Within “AI,” leadership remained uneven—hardware/capex narratives held up better than software, which stayed under pressure on competition and monetization uncertainty. Going into Monday, futures weakness and global equity softness keep the market focused on macro inputs (ISM, Treasury borrowing needs) and policy signaling, with cross-asset volatility (USD, rates, commodities, crypto) still the primary driver of theme-level rotation.
Thematic ETF Dashboard
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — Daily Performance (1D %)
Top 10 gainers (1D)
| Ticker | Fund | 1D % | Flow 1D |
| SCHD | Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF | 1.53% | $82M |
| SPHD | Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF | 1.43% | -$49M |
| SPLV | Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF | 0.84% | -$11M |
| RWR | State Street SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF | 0.46% | — |
| USRT | iShares Core U.S. REIT ETF | 0.43% | — |
| ICF | iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF | 0.36% | — |
| VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate ETF | 0.33% | — |
| XLRE | Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund | 0.28% | — |
| VYM | Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF | 0.28% | $49M |
| IYR | iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF | 0.26% | -$53M |
Bottom 10 decliners (1D)
| Ticker | Fund | 1D % | Flow 1D |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | -28.54% | — |
| SILJ | Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF | -15.02% | $30M |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | -12.76% | $183M |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | -10.27% | $99M |
| KOPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | -10.00% | $182M |
| IAU | iShares Gold Trust | -9.95% | — |
| SIL | Global X Silver Miners ETF | -9.65% | — |
| GLDM | SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust | -9.61% | — |
| SGOL | abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF | -9.51% | — |
| GDXJ | VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF | -9.22% | — |
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — 1-Month Performance (1M %)
Top 10 (1M)
| Ticker | Fund | 1M % | Flow 1M |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | 21.77% | -$3.99B |
| KOPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | 16.33% | $2.32B |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | 12.45% | $1.53B |
| IAU | iShares Gold Trust | 12.36% | — |
| GLDM | SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust | 12.35% | — |
| SGOL | abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF | 12.34% | — |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | 10.14% | -$1.10B |
| SIL | Global X Silver Miners ETF | 9.91% | — |
| GDXJ | VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF | 9.45% | — |
| SILJ | Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF | 8.75% | $100M |
Bottom 10 (1M)
| Ticker | Fund | 1M % | Flow 1M |
| ARKG | ARK Genomic Revolution ETF | -10.23% | -$97M |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | -9.42% | -$421M |
| IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | -6.06% | -$171M |
| PBW | Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF | -5.17% | -$4M |
| TAN | Invesco Solar ETF | -5.68% | -$20M |
| ICLN | iShares Global Clean Energy ETF | -4.20% | -$2M |
| BOTZ | Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF | -3.54% | -$60M |
| ROBO | ROBO Global Robotics & Automation ETF | -3.24% | -$12M |
| ARKK | ARK Innovation ETF | -2.92% | -$170M |
| CIBR | First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF | -2.68% | $33M |
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — YTD Fund Flows
Top 10 inflows (YTD)
| Ticker | Fund | Flow YTD | 1M % | 3M % | 1D % |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | $5.45B | 0.84% | 1.49% | -0.33% |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | $4.11B | 7.07% | 8.25% | -0.50% |
| VCIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF | $3.55B | 0.01% | -1.18% | -0.02% |
| BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | $3.25B | 0.02% | -1.22% | -0.03% |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | $2.68B | 0.01% | -1.21% | -0.02% |
| VUG | Vanguard Growth ETF | $2.68B | -2.11% | -3.32% | -1.04% |
| SGOV | iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF | $2.21B | 0.02% | 0.19% | 0.00% |
| SCHD | Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF | $1.97B | 3.41% | 4.73% | 1.53% |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | $1.61B | 12.45% | 30.15% | -10.27% |
| SCHX | Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF | $1.58B | 0.91% | 1.23% | -0.33% |
Bottom 10 outflows (YTD)
| Ticker | Fund | Flow YTD | 1M % | 3M % | 1D % |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | -$13.27B | 0.72% | 1.79% | -0.30% |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust Series I | -$7.14B | 0.39% | -0.67% | -1.20% |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | -$3.91B | 21.77% | 143.65% | -28.54% |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | -$3.75B | 4.68% | 6.04% | -1.41% |
| EFA | iShares MSCI EAFE ETF | -$3.22B | 4.96% | 5.00% | -0.50% |
| GLDM | SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust | -$1.69B | 12.35% | 30.09% | -9.61% |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -$1.19B | -0.25% | -1.82% | -0.30% |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | -$1.15B | 10.14% | 44.38% | -12.76% |
| IAU | iShares Gold Trust | -$1.08B | 12.36% | 30.09% | -9.95% |
| VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate ETF | -$865M | 1.65% | 2.79% | 0.33% |
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems, Inc.
