Fri, Jan 30, 2026
Macro & Equity Setup
S&P futures -0.8% in early Friday trading, extending the risk-off tone after Thursday’s mixed close. Cross-asset moves are sharp: DXY +0.4%, gold -~5%, silver -~13.5%, WTI -1.2%, bitcoin -2.3%. Treasuries are weaker with bear steepening (yields down ~2–3 bp at the long end per your note).
Key macro driver this morning: renewed focus on a potentially hawkish Fed leadership shift, with Donald Trump expected to nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair replacement for Jerome Powell. The combination of stronger USD + crowded commodities positioning is showing up immediately in the hard-asset unwind.
Prior Session Recap (Thu, Jan 29)
U.S. equities finished mixed: Dow +0.11%, S&P -0.13%, Nasdaq -0.72%, Russell 2000 +0.05%. The downside was concentrated in tech/software (software selloff after results from Microsoft and others), while energy, banks, travel/leisure, and industrial metals held up better. Volatility jumped (second-largest VIX increase YTD, though still ~20 in your note). Oil rallied again on Iran headlines.
Macro Data Review
- Initial claims 209K; continuing claims 1.827M (better than expected).
- Nov trade deficit $56.8B, wider than consensus and sharply above October.
- Final Q3 productivity 4.9% SAAR; unit labor costs 1.9% (unchanged).
- 7Y auction tailed (0.4 bp), though foreign demand improved vs recent averages.
- Dec PPI is today’s key U.S. release.
Thematic Lens on the Tape
Today’s tape reflects a sharp rotation away from crowded momentum themes as a stronger dollar and Fed leadership speculation triggered de-risking. Precious metals and miners, recent leaders, saw abrupt reversals amid positioning unwind, while AI software remained under pressure following earnings that reinforced competition and monetization uncertainty. In contrast, AI infrastructure and hardware-adjacent themes continue to show relative resilience despite volatility, underscoring the market’s preference for tangible capex exposure over long-duration narratives. Energy-linked themes benefited from renewed geopolitical risk premiums, while biotech, clean energy, and other policy-sensitive themes stayed sidelined. Overall, the session favored cash-flow visibility and scarcity over narrative-driven growth.
What it meant for thematic ETF investors
Bottom line: the tape flipped from “AI infrastructure + metals momentum” into a USD squeeze / crowded-unwind session—hitting the same themes that had been leading (precious metals, parts of AI/software) while leaving energy and select cyclicals comparatively insulated.
- AI theme bifurcation sharpened: strong prints and guidance from Meta Platforms supported “AI monetization winners,” but the broader software complex stayed under pressure on disruption/competition narratives and high expectations.
- Hard assets became the pressure valve: with the dollar rebounding and positioning described as crowded, precious metals reversed hard (gold/silver down sharply this morning after a volatile prior day), while industrial metals (copper) were strong Thursday but are vulnerable to the same USD + de-risking impulse.
- Energy remained the macro hedge: oil’s bid (Iran premium) kept energy-linked exposures relatively supported versus long-duration growth factors.
ETF Performance & Flow Tables
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — Daily Performance (1D %)
Top 10 gainers (1D)
| Ticker | Fund | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| UNG | United States Natural Gas Fund LP | 3.65% | 15.40% | 23.34% | -11.6M | -325.5M | -274.2M |
| USO | United States Oil Fund LP | 3.29% | 13.69% | 10.22% | 0 | 51.5M | 149.3M |
| DBO | Invesco DB Oil Fund | 3.18% | 13.51% | 6.49% | 0 | 2.0M | 2.0M |
| BNO | United States Brent Oil Fund LP | 3.11% | 15.17% | 11.78% | 0 | 11.9M | 10.5M |
| JETS | U.S. Global Jets ETF | 2.64% | 1.32% | 16.80% | -51.3M | 44.5M | 50.1M |
| BEDZ | AdvisorShares Hotel ETF | 2.56% | -1.91% | 6.11% | 0 | -1.2M | -1.6M |
| KOPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | 2.45% | 32.10% | 53.41% | 177.0M | 1.57B | 1.40B |
| ICF | iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF | 1.65% | 1.82% | 3.19% | 0 | 3.0M | 3.0M |
| RWR | SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF | 1.63% | 1.66% | 3.81% | 0 | -80.3M | -80.3M |
| SCHH | Schwab U.S. REIT ETF | 1.52% | 1.76% | 3.24% | -6.3M | 107.1M | 86.0M |
Bottom 10 decliners (1D)
| Ticker | Fund | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | -12.88% | 33.50% | 135.86% | -1.70B | -3.65B | -3.80B |
| SIL | Global X Silver Miners ETF | -11.01% | 23.80% | 64.88% | -40.3M | -37.8M | -75.3M |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | -5.33% | 16.98% | 30.69% | -1.01B | 1.31B | 1.46B |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | -4.53% | 17.90% | 45.77% | -289.1M | -24.7M | -90.6M |
| SGOL | abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF | -4.49% | 16.93% | 30.52% | -55.9M | 0 | -7.8M |
| GLDM | SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust | -4.47% | 16.93% | 30.58% | -276.2M | 174.4M | 179.0M |
| IAU | iShares Gold Trust | -4.41% | 16.86% | 30.53% | -580.6M | 568.8M | 655.7M |
| GDXJ | VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF | -4.39% | 17.27% | 43.41% | -152.6M | -172.6M | -245.3M |
| COPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | -3.94% | 19.18% | 25.02% | -11.2M | -64.3M | -33.0M |
| URA | Global X Uranium ETF | -3.50% | 17.15% | 8.56% | -129.7M | 287.2M | 47.2M |
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — 1-Month Performance (1M %)
Top 10 (1M)
| Ticker | Fund | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| KOPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | 2.45% | 32.10% | 53.41% | 177.0M | 1.57B | 1.40B |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | -12.88% | 33.50% | 135.86% | -1.70B | -3.65B | -3.80B |
| COPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | -3.94% | 19.18% | 25.02% | -11.2M | -64.3M | -33.0M |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | -5.33% | 16.98% | 30.69% | -1.01B | 1.31B | 1.46B |
| IAU | iShares Gold Trust | -4.41% | 16.86% | 30.53% | -580.6M | 568.8M | 655.7M |
| GLDM | SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust | -4.47% | 16.93% | 30.58% | -276.2M | 174.4M | 179.0M |
| SGOL | abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF | -4.49% | 16.93% | 30.52% | -55.9M | 0 | -7.8M |
| BNO | United States Brent Oil Fund LP | 3.11% | 15.17% | 11.78% | 0 | 11.9M | 10.5M |
| UNG | United States Natural Gas Fund LP | 3.65% | 15.40% | 23.34% | -11.6M | -325.5M | -274.2M |
| USO | United States Oil Fund LP | 3.29% | 13.69% | 10.22% | 0 | 51.5M | 149.3M |
Bottom 10 (1M)
| Ticker | Fund | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| ARKG | ARK Genomic Revolution ETF | 0.69% | -10.23% | -7.67% | -10.1M | -97.3M | -76.4M |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 0.24% | -9.42% | -6.97% | -25.6M | -421.0M | -321.2M |
| IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | 0.17% | -6.06% | -4.19% | -8.8M | -171.4M | -103.1M |
| TAN | Invesco Solar ETF | 0.30% | -5.68% | -7.44% | 0 | -20.5M | -22.4M |
| PBW | Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF | 0.43% | -5.17% | -11.02% | 0 | -4.1M | -13.7M |
| ICLN | iShares Global Clean Energy ETF | 0.37% | -4.20% | -2.29% | -0.6M | -2.5M | -1.2M |
| BOTZ | Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF | -0.53% | -3.54% | -4.19% | -7.9M | -60.0M | -66.6M |
| ROBO | ROBO Global Robotics & Automation ETF | -0.52% | -3.24% | -2.68% | 0.2M | -11.8M | -13.5M |
| ARKK | ARK Innovation ETF | 0.36% | -2.92% | -2.52% | -14.2M | -170.2M | -156.0M |
| CIBR | First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF | -0.29% | -2.68% | 1.73% | -14.8M | 33.4M | 19.6M |
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — YTD Fund Flows
Top 10 inflows (YTD)
| Ticker | Fund | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | -0.23% | 1.15% | 1.64% | 317.5M | 5.58B | 5.13B |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | -0.51% | 10.57% | 7.91% | 708.4M | 4.06B | 4.06B |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.63% | 100.1M | 2.79B | 2.68B |
| VUG | Vanguard Growth ETF | -0.92% | -1.50% | -3.79% | 79.2M | 2.94B | 2.67B |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | -5.33% | 16.98% | 30.69% | -1.01B | 1.31B | 1.46B |
| BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.68% | 93.0M | 2.53B | 2.40B |
| SGOV | iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF | 0.00% | 0.03% | 0.19% | 64.9M | 2.24B | 2.02B |
| KOPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | 2.45% | 32.10% | 53.41% | 177.0M | 1.57B | 1.40B |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | -0.60% | 2.64% | 1.29% | -207.3M | 371.3M | 368.5M |
| JEPQ | JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF | -0.23% | -0.34% | -0.52% | 23.7M | 550.2M | 522.0M |
Bottom 10 flows (YTD)
| Ticker | Fund | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | -0.36% | 0.19% | 0.77% | -3.56B | -5.84B | -12.09B |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust Series I | -1.18% | -0.62% | -2.59% | -1.51B | -4.77B | -7.10B |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | -12.88% | 33.50% | 135.86% | -1.70B | -3.65B | -3.80B |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | -0.29% | 4.22% | 3.88% | -271.8M | -2.19B | -2.04B |
| EFA | iShares MSCI EAFE ETF | -0.52% | 6.20% | 4.17% | 0 | 0 | -2.73B |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.27% | -0.16% | -1.87% | -88.7M | -1.01B | -1.16B |
| GLDM | SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust | -4.47% | 16.93% | 30.58% | -276.2M | 174.4M | -1.09B |
| IAU | iShares Gold Trust | -4.41% | 16.86% | 30.53% | -580.6M | 568.8M | -1.07B |
| VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate ETF | -0.63% | 1.08% | 2.33% | -56.0M | -291.1M | -799.6M |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 0.24% | -9.42% | -6.97% | -25.6M | -421.0M | -321.2M |
