February 25, 2026
U.S. equities extended Tuesday’s rebound (Dow +0.76%, S&P 500 +0.77%, Nasdaq +1.04%, Russell 2000 +1.20%) as risk appetite stabilized following Monday’s AI-driven selloff. Market breadth improved meaningfully (NYSE 1.87:1; Nasdaq 2.16:1), reflecting rotation back into cyclicals and technology. Sector leadership was led by Consumer Discretionary (+1.58%), Industrials (+1.23%), and Technology (+1.17%), while Energy (-0.11%) and Healthcare (-0.53%) lagged.
Macro data was constructive but not overheated. February consumer confidence rose to 91.2 (vs 89.0 prior), labor-market differential improved, and ADP weekly private payrolls averaged 12.75K—highest since November. Housing data showed incremental firmness (FHFA +0.1% m/m; Case-Shiller +0.5%), while Richmond Fed manufacturing dipped to -10.0. Treasury yields were mixed with modest flattening (2Y +2 bp to 3.46%, 10Y ~4.03%).
Importantly for thematic positioning, the AI compute narrative regained leadership. Reports of META’s potential $100B+ compute agreement with AMD reinforced hyperscaler capex durability. NVDA earnings expectations remain elevated, with Street whisper numbers calling for another material beat-and-raise cycle. The tone from Anthropic’s enterprise agent event shifted from disruption to collaboration, easing systemic fears surrounding software margin collapse.
Trading Digest
Technology stabilization was driven by three primary forces: (1) short covering after Monday’s AI panic, (2) partnership rhetoric from Anthropic emphasizing workflow integration over displacement, and (3) renewed investor focus on infrastructure-layer revenue visibility vs application-layer disruption risk.
Semiconductors outperformed as META’s compute expansion highlighted structural demand for AI accelerators and memory. Memory pricing pressure (HPQ commentary) and export control circumvention headlines (DeepSeek/NVDA) underscore ongoing geopolitical complexity within the semiconductor supply chain.
Policy uncertainty remains elevated. While the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling has shifted implementation mechanics, market participants largely expect aggregate tariff revenue to remain similar under alternative authorities. Geopolitical risk surrounding Iran remains a volatility tail risk, but has not materially altered risk premia.
Data center power constraints remain a key secondary theme. Google’s power purchase agreements and broader grid expansion discussions reinforce the capital intensity and utility exposure embedded within AI infrastructure deployment.
Thematic Tail of the Tape
AI Compute Arms Race: Infrastructure-layer spending remains durable. Hyperscaler capex commitments and compute agreements suggest sustained multi-year accelerator demand. Watch NVDA guidance for confirmation of capacity expansion vs supply bottlenecks.
Enterprise Software Stabilization: Narrative shifting from displacement to augmentation. However, valuation compression risk persists where pricing power or renewal cycles weaken.
Energy & Grid Modernization: Data-center power intensity is driving new generation, pipeline expansion, and long-duration utility investment cycles.
Consumer & Housing: Confidence improving, mortgage rates near multi-year lows (~6%), but affordability pressures remain elevated as supply-demand imbalance persists.
Positioning Implication: Overweight capital-intensive themes with visible backlog, hardware leverage, and pricing power. Maintain tactical caution on application-layer software with stretched valuation multiples and AI displacement risk.
Top 10 Daily Performers
| Ticker | ETF Name | 1-Day % | 1-Month % |
| MSOX | AdvisorShares MSOS Daily Leveraged ETF | 15.14% | -35.78% |
| CNBS | Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF | 9.34% | -15.33% |
| MSOS | AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF | 9.04% | -17.94% |
| WEED | Roundhill Cannabis ETF | 7.85% | -17.41% |
| WGMI | CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF | 7.42% | -13.09% |
| FLYU | MicroSectors Travel 3x Leveraged ETN | 7.26% | -17.56% |
| MJ | Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF | 6.20% | -10.60% |
| YOLO | AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF | 5.61% | -7.38% |
| BKCH | Global X Blockchain ETF | 5.09% | -17.72% |
| LABU | Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares | 4.99% | -0.59% |
Bottom 10 Daily Performers
| Ticker | ETF Name | 1-Day % | 1-Month % |
| KRBN | KraneShares Global Carbon Strategy ETF | -2.01% | -15.03% |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | -1.85% | -14.89% |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | -1.39% | 3.63% |
| MLPB | ETRACS Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index ETN Series B | -0.72% | 7.83% |
| IDMO | Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF | -0.50% | 3.38% |
| HERO | Global X Video Games & Esports ETF | -0.48% | -11.63% |
| TPYP | Tortoise North American Pipeline Fund | -0.35% | 10.87% |
| ESPO | VanEck Video Gaming and eSports ETF | -0.30% | -11.69% |
| MLPX | Global X MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF | -0.28% | 10.85% |
| ATMP | Barclays ETN+ Select MLP ETN | -0.27% | 10.21% |
Top 10 – 1M Fund Flows
| Ticker | ETF Name | 1-Day % | Flow |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 0.82% | $4,387,217,017 |
| SGOV | iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF | 0.00% | $4,067,078,984 |
| IGV | iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF | 1.91% | $2,492,276,095 |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | -0.01% | $2,426,748,830 |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | -0.01% | $2,426,748,830 |
| BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | -0.05% | $2,368,205,000 |
| VTV | Vanguard Value ETF | 0.45% | $2,256,920,423 |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | 1.57% | $2,171,669,518 |
| SCHD | Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF | 0.35% | $2,104,280,000 |
| VCIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF | -0.09% | $1,972,146,955 |
Bottom 10 – 1M Fund Flows
| Ticker | ETF Name | 1-Day % | Flow |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 0.73% | $-5,490,827,292 |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 1.09% | $-2,925,845,790 |
| VTEB | Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF | 0.14% | $-1,805,129,659 |
| ARKK | ARK Innovation ETF | 2.96% | $-1,431,051,300 |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.18% | $-1,239,979,638 |
| KLMN | Invesco MSCI North America Climate ETF | 1.09% | $-672,313,200 |
| KWEB | KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF | -0.09% | $-641,547,505 |
| XBI | State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 1.72% | $-607,804,452 |
| EEMV | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Min Vol Factor ETF | 0.85% | $-337,199,580 |
| ARKX | ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF | 1.06% | $-293,020,750 |
Top 10 – YTD Fund Flows
| Ticker | ETF Name | 1-Day % | Flow |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 0.82% | $8,678,884,433 |
| SGOV | iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF | 0.00% | $6,105,689,212 |
| VCIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF | -0.09% | $5,505,684,717 |
| BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | -0.05% | $5,148,821,000 |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | 1.57% | $4,605,932,835 |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | -1.39% | $3,858,952,300 |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | -0.01% | $3,764,922,870 |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | -0.01% | $3,764,922,870 |
| VUG | Vanguard Growth ETF | 1.01% | $3,513,551,395 |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 1.52% | $3,297,450,705 |
Bottom 10 – YTD Fund Flows
| Ticker | ETF Name | 1-Day % | Flow |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 0.73% | $-20,124,307,212 |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 1.09% | $-5,160,526,331 |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust Series I | 1.07% | $-4,184,478,150 |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.18% | $-3,675,909,720 |
| VTEB | Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF | 0.14% | $-1,194,970,409 |
| VIG | Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF | 0.44% | $-728,614,297 |
| KLMN | Invesco MSCI North America Climate ETF | 1.09% | $-672,313,200 |
| EEMV | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Min Vol Factor ETF | 0.85% | $-616,389,800 |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | -1.85% | $-604,380,000 |
| IYR | iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF | 0.25% | $-540,522,111 |
