Thematic ETF Daily Trading Outlook

March 10, 2026

Theme Signal

The market is trading an Iran off-ramp and a collapse in the oil panic premium, which is reviving growth, momentum, semis, and crypto while pulling capital back out of energy defense.

Investment Digest

U.S. equities rebounded sharply on Monday as stocks reversed early losses and finished near session highs after late-day comments from President Trump suggested the Iran war may be nearing an end. The S&P 500 gained 0.83%, the Nasdaq rose 1.38%, and the Russell 2000 added 1.12%, with the rally led by big tech, momentum, high beta, and retail-favorite names. Nvidia and Alphabet were standouts among the Mag 7, while memory, industrial metals, transports, and travel also joined the rebound.

The key macro story was the violent reversal in the energy complex. WTI crude briefly traded above $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022 before plunging on headlines that Trump sees the war as “pretty well complete” and may move to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Crude still settled up 4.3% to $88.06, but the late-session collapse in oil helped take pressure off broader risk assets. Treasuries rallied modestly at the long end, with the 10-year yield down 4 bp to 4.10%, while the dollar weakened 0.2% and gold fell 1.1%.

This morning, S&P futures are up 0.3%, extending Monday’s late-session rally. The follow-through is being supported by a much softer energy tape, with WTI down another 7.0% premarket and back below $90, while the dollar is weaker and risk appetite is firmer across Europe and Asia. Markets are clearly leaning into an off-ramp narrative, though the durability of that move remains uncertain given Iran’s continued threats around oil exports and the unresolved question of how quickly hostilities truly de-escalate.

There was little macro data on Monday, though the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed one-year inflation expectations dipping to 3.0%, with three-year and five-year expectations unchanged. Attention now shifts to existing-home sales today, then to February CPI tomorrow, which is still expected at +0.3% m/m on both headline and core. Treasury supply also remains in focus with $58B of 3-year notes auctioned today ahead of 10s Wednesday and 30s Thursday.

Thematic Tail of the Tape

For thematic investors, Monday’s price action was a classic regime reversal: the market unwound part of last week’s energy-shock trade and moved back toward the themes that benefit most from lower oil, softer yields, and improved risk appetite. The biggest beneficiaries were AI infrastructure, semiconductors, biotech beta, and crypto-linked equities. That matters because it suggests investors are still willing to pay for secular growth if they believe the geopolitical shock will prove temporary rather than inflationary and recessionary.

The AI complex remains central. Monday’s tape saw renewed upside in big tech and semis, while corporate news continued to reinforce the long-term AI buildout story. HPE beat and guided above on AI-driven demand, TSMC reported February revenue up 22% y/y, and Nvidia is preparing to launch an open-source enterprise AI agent platform. That combination of demand, ecosystem expansion, and new tooling continues to support the view that the AI capex cycle remains structurally intact even when macro volatility flares.

At the same time, the part of the market that had been acting as a geopolitical hedge — energy, defense, and some hard-asset exposures — lagged badly on Monday as oil gave back a large chunk of its panic premium. That suggests thematic leadership is still highly sensitive to the market’s view on whether the Iran conflict becomes a prolonged supply shock or a fast-moving geopolitical event.

The more interesting under-the-surface move was in software. Software outperformed again, even after the market spent much of the past two months debating AI disintermediation risk. That tells you the market is increasingly willing to distinguish between AI beneficiaries and AI victims, rather than simply de-rating the whole group together. Enterprise software tied to workflow, security, infrastructure, and mission-critical systems continues to behave much better than the more speculative application layer.

Thematic ETF Performance — Leaders (1D)

Thematic ETF Performance — Laggards (1D)

ETF Fund Flows — Largest Inflows (1M)

ETF Fund Flows — Largest Outflows (1M)

ETF Fund Flows — Largest Inflows (YTD)

ETF Fund Flows — Largest Outflows (YTD)