Wed, Jan 28, 2026 | U.S. Morning Setup
Macro & Equity Overview
S&P 500 futures +0.3% in Wednesday morning trading after Tuesday’s risk-on tone pushed the S&P to a fresh record high. Early cross-asset signals: gold +3.7%, silver +6.6%, bitcoin +0.5%, WTI -0.2%. The dollar is stabilizing after a sharp downdraft yesterday, while Treasuries are slightly weaker at the back end. The Nasdaq is set or a big open as well (futures up +0.9%).
January 27, recap:
U.S. equities were mostly higher: Dow -0.83%, S&P +0.41%, Nasdaq +0.91%, Russell 2000 +0.26%. Leadership skewed to growth/momentum/tech, with semiconductors materially outperforming software. Small caps lagged for a third straight session.
Macro tape highlights:
- Dollar index -1.4% (worst day since Apr-25; lowest since Feb-22).
- Rates: curve steepened; 30Y +4 bp. 5Y auction tailed (0.3 bp).
- Commodities: silver -8.3% (after Monday’s +14%); WTI +2.9%.
Macro Data & Policy Signals (as provided)
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence fell sharply to the lowest level since May-2014, with both present situation and expectations down; labor market differential weakened.
- Richmond Fed Index missed; employment component weakened; prices paid up slightly while prices received eased.
- ADP weekly private payrolls (4-week avg) slowed to the weakest since late November.
- Markets moved toward a slightly easier Fed path (incrementally higher easing priced), with FOMC decision + Powell press conference today (hold expected; focus on tone and any dissents).
- Political headline risk remains elevated (tariffs/shutdown chatter), but price action continues to indicate the market is willing to look through it near-term.
What it meant for thematic ETF investors
Theme leadership remained “tech + AI infrastructure” on the equity side, while “dollar down / hard assets up” stayed dominant in macro. That combination tends to create a split within thematic universes:
- AI/compute ecosystem themes (semis, networking, AI data-center supply chain) benefit when growth/momentum leadership returns and earnings season focuses attention on capex and monetization.
- Real-asset themes continue to trade as a macro expression of USD weakness and scarcity pricing (gold/silver complex especially), with day-to-day volatility in silver still high after Monday’s spike and Tuesday’s pullback.
- Policy-sensitive themes (e.g., managed-care spillovers, tariff-exposed areas, shutdown-adjacent contractors) remain more headline-driven and less consistent in flows versus performance.
Notably, flows remain concentrated in liquid “core + infrastructure-adjacent” vehicles (broad beta, bonds, gold, semis) even when daily price leadership rotates into higher-beta thematic pockets.
Top 10 (1D return)
| Ticker | Fund | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| WGMI | CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF | 9.27% | 28.05% | -16.34% | -7.0M | 46.5M | 48.5M |
| BKCH | Global X Blockchain ETF | 7.49% | 22.06% | -25.56% | -3.8M | 10.6M | 4.8M |
| DAPP | VanEck Digital Transformation ETF | 5.48% | 17.57% | -21.18% | 0 | 1.9M | 1.9M |
| BITQ | Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF | 5.33% | 15.70% | -21.58% | -2.7M | 13.1M | 9.9M |
| CLOU | Global X Cloud Computing ETF | 4.48% | 1.78% | -9.88% | -5.0M | 79.3M | 58.4M |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 4.39% | 3.42% | -4.91% | -6.2M | -5.5M | -21.2M |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 3.31% | 3.49% | 9.70% | 62.4M | 1.58B | 1.60B |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | 3.20% | 2.27% | 6.62% | 22.2M | 173.0M | 149.4M |
| FTXL | First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF | 3.12% | 3.11% | 7.76% | 0.9M | 0.7M | -6.1M |
| XSD | SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF | 3.07% | 2.65% | 8.44% | 1.2M | 41.0M | 56.1M |
Bottom 10 (1D return)
| Ticker | Fund | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| MSOS | AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF | -4.59% | -9.15% | -4.79% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CNBS | Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF | -3.73% | -8.07% | -6.55% | -2.8M | -4.2M | -2.8M |
| MJ | Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF | -2.27% | -7.77% | -15.02% | 0 | -3.0M | -3.0M |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | -2.09% | -4.10% | -7.25% | -83.3M | -625.5M | -408.2M |
| IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | -1.87% | -3.40% | -6.11% | -30.4M | -278.7M | -165.2M |
| PBW | Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF | -1.71% | -6.58% | -15.49% | -0.7M | -6.4M | -19.2M |
| TAN | Invesco Solar ETF | -1.49% | -5.44% | -10.30% | -3.7M | -40.8M | -36.0M |
| ICLN | iShares Global Clean Energy ETF | -1.32% | -3.14% | -4.52% | -2.4M | -7.0M | -3.5M |
| XOP | SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | -1.27% | 7.90% | 8.34% | -26.1M | 144.9M | 228.5M |
| JETS | U.S. Global Jets ETF | -1.21% | -0.54% | 2.71% | -7.5M | -11.8M | -18.3M |
Top 10 (1M return)
| Ticker | Fund | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| SIL | Global X Silver Miners ETF | 1.08% | 39.49% | 77.61% | 12.2M | 56.2M | 22.3M |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | 0.51% | 33.56% | 74.89% | -196.6M | -678.7M | -875.7M |
| GDXJ | VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF | 1.75% | 18.97% | 33.43% | 58.9M | 686.5M | 810.7M |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | 1.63% | 18.34% | 29.87% | 88.0M | 1.05B | 1.40B |
| COPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | 1.62% | 13.65% | 12.34% | 32.6M | 189.9M | 308.7M |
| KOPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | 2.49% | 13.21% | 14.89% | 64.9M | 410.6M | 823.9M |
| URA | Global X Uranium ETF | 0.77% | 10.83% | 5.41% | 39.4M | 185.7M | 235.3M |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | 0.45% | 8.20% | 12.39% | 1.35B | 4.74B | 2.56B |
| BITO | ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF | 2.08% | 7.61% | -2.08% | 12.8M | -79.0M | -58.6M |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund | 1.05% | 7.15% | 6.62% | 46.6M | -474.2M | -1.27B |
Bottom 10 (1M return)
| Ticker | Fund | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| PBW | Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF | -1.71% | -6.58% | -15.49% | -0.7M | -6.4M | -19.2M |
| MSOS | AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF | -4.59% | -9.15% | -4.79% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CNBS | Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF | -3.73% | -8.07% | -6.55% | -2.8M | -4.2M | -2.8M |
| MJ | Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF | -2.27% | -7.77% | -15.02% | 0 | -3.0M | -3.0M |
| TAN | Invesco Solar ETF | -1.49% | -5.44% | -10.30% | -3.7M | -40.8M | -36.0M |
| ICLN | iShares Global Clean Energy ETF | -1.32% | -3.14% | -4.52% | -2.4M | -7.0M | -3.5M |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | -2.09% | -4.10% | -7.25% | -83.3M | -625.5M | -408.2M |
| IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | -1.87% | -3.40% | -6.11% | -30.4M | -278.7M | -165.2M |
| SOCL | Global X Social Media ETF | 0.29% | -3.07% | -8.57% | -0.2M | -1.3M | -5.3M |
| HACK | ETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF | 0.89% | -2.90% | -3.49% | 7.8M | 33.1M | 18.4M |
Top 10 (Flow YTD)
| Ticker | Fund | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 0.36% | 1.06% | 2.02% | 266.1M | 5.40B | 4.71B |
| VCIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF | -0.01% | -0.01% | 0.16% | 151.6M | 3.44B | 3.44B |
| BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | -0.08% | 0.12% | -0.06% | 74.3M | 3.50B | 3.18B |
| SGOV | iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.17% | 49.6M | 2.90B | 2.51B |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | 0.45% | 8.20% | 12.39% | 1.35B | 4.74B | 2.56B |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | -0.09% | 0.03% | -0.14% | 120.4M | 2.30B | 1.34B |
| JEPQ | JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF | 0.15% | 0.38% | 2.65% | 28.1M | 1.98B | 1.90B |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 3.31% | 3.49% | 9.70% | 62.4M | 1.58B | 1.60B |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | 1.63% | 18.34% | 29.87% | 88.0M | 1.05B | 1.40B |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | 2.55% | 9.92% | 7.97% | 0 | 2.55B | 2.55B |
Bottom 10 (Flow YTD)
| Ticker | Fund | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.18% | 0.25% | -1.33% | -90.0M | -1.02B | -1.18B |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund | 1.05% | 7.15% | 6.62% | 46.6M | -474.2M | -1.27B |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust Series I | 0.91% | 1.16% | 0.48% | -156.4M | -2.69B | -6.20B |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 0.40% | 0.75% | 1.50% | -865.9M | -7.37B | -15.36B |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | 0.51% | 33.56% | 74.89% | -196.6M | -678.7M | -875.7M |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 0.28% | 5.29% | 5.77% | 0 | -3.15B | -2.67B |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | -2.09% | -4.10% | -7.25% | -83.3M | -625.5M | -408.2M |
| EFA | iShares MSCI EAFE ETF | 1.90% | 7.76% | 5.99% | 0 | 0 | -3.06B |
| IYR | iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF | 0.12% | 0.81% | 2.05% | -47.4M | -204.9M | -517.8M |
| VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate ETF | 0.11% | 0.72% | 1.96% | -88.6M | -360.3M | -823.7M |
