Tue, Jan 27, 2026 | U.S. Morning Setup
Macro & Equity Overview
S&P 500 futures are up ~0.3% in Tuesday morning trading, extending Monday’s gains after equities reversed overnight pressure. Early leadership is concentrated in Mag 7, software, pharma, and precious-metals-linked equities, while small caps are lagging for a second straight session.
Overnight, Asian markets traded higher, led by South Korea and Greater China, while European markets are modestly higher (~+0.2%). Treasuries are little changed to slightly weaker at the back end, the dollar index is roughly flat, gold and silver are taking a breather after a sharp run, bitcoin futures are down ~0.5%, and WTI crude is up ~0.5%.
Prior Session Recap (Mon, Jan 26)
U.S. equities finished mostly higher on Monday, with the Dow +0.64%, S&P 500 +0.50%, Nasdaq +0.43%, and Russell 2000 −0.36%. Gains came despite elevated headline volatility and followed a choppy prior week.
Leadership skewed toward large-cap technology and growth-oriented cyclicals, while small caps, most-shorted names, and retail-favorite stocks underperformed. Treasuries were firmer with modest curve flattening, aided by a strongly received $69B 2-year auction.
Cross-asset moves were notable:
- Dollar index fell ~0.6%, hitting its weakest level in four months
- Gold surged 2.1% and decisively cleared $5,000/oz
- Silver jumped 14.0%, its strongest single-day gain since March 1985
- Bitcoin futures fell ~1.9%
- WTI crude slipped ~0.7%
Macro Data, Policy, and Week-Ahead Context
Macro data on Monday reinforced the “resilient but uneven” economic narrative. Headline durable goods orders rose 5.3% m/m, well ahead of expectations, while core capital goods orders increased 0.7%, also beating consensus. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index improved meaningfully, though it remained slightly negative.
Policy and headline risk remain elevated:
- Tariff rhetoric resurfaced, including threats toward Canada and uncertainty around EU-U.S. trade discussions
- Government shutdown odds increased, with Kalshi pricing a high probability of a lapse later this week
- Japan intervention chatter intensified, contributing to yen strength and helping stabilize global rates
Looking ahead, focus turns to Wednesday’s FOMC decision (hold expected) and a heavy slate of Mag 7 earnings, where markets are particularly sensitive to AI capex, productivity, and monetization commentary.
Implications for Thematic ETF Investors
Thematic ETF trading continues to be driven primarily by macro forces rather than idiosyncratic theme narratives.
- Dollar weakness and commodity scarcity remain the most consistent tailwind, supporting precious metals, miners, copper, and select energy-linked themes.
- Rates stabilization has helped limit downside in growth-oriented themes but has not catalyzed broad inflows into speculative or policy-sensitive categories.
- Headline volatility continues to favor short-duration, liquid thematic expressions, with investors more willing to trade momentum than commit long-term capital.
This dynamic is evident in the data: daily and 1-month performance leadership is concentrated in metals and commodity-linked ETFs, while year-to-date flows continue to favor gold, core equity beta, bonds, and select semiconductor infrastructure exposures rather than leveraged or niche thematic vehicles.
Bottom Line
Today’s setup reinforces a familiar pattern for thematic investors: macro forces—particularly dollar weakness, commodity scarcity, and policy uncertainty—continue to dominate short-term performance, while capital allocation remains selective and defensive.
Price leadership is concentrated in precious metals, miners, and commodity-linked ETFs, but flows continue to favor gold, core beta, bonds, and scalable infrastructure themes rather than leveraged or highly speculative thematic expressions. The result is a market where thematic ETFs are being actively traded on macro momentum, while longer-duration conviction remains anchored in liquid, real-asset-adjacent exposures.
Thematic ETF Performance & Flow Tables
(From provided ETF universe spreadsheet)
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — Daily Performance
Top 10 Daily Gainers
| Ticker | Category | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| AGQ | Ultra Silver | 13.8% | 92.7% | 297.7% | -70.5M | +60.7M | -79.6M |
| SLV | Silver | 6.6% | 43.3% | 83.6% | -42.3M | -782.6M | -953.0M |
| BOIL | Levered Nat Gas | 8.2% | 12.7% | -3.7% | -19.5M | -134.1M | -107.9M |
| WGMI | Bitcoin Miners | 4.7% | 18.4% | -19.8% | -7.1M | +52.9M | +60.4M |
| KOPX | Copper Miners | 4.6% | 19.0% | 14.1% | +70.6M | +440.1M | +828.9M |
| UNG | Natural Gas | 4.0% | 8.3% | -5.1% | -105.4M | +15.0M | -141.9M |
| UCO | Levered Crude | 4.6% | 8.0% | -6.1% | 0.0M | -54.5M | -28.8M |
| MSOX | Levered Cannabis | 7.1% | 0.4% | -36.0% | +2.4M | +7.1M | +4.7M |
| SIL | Silver Miners | 2.2% | 38.7% | 74.4% | +1.5M | +46.3M | +12.9M |
| GDX | Gold Miners | 1.6% | 21.8% | 28.5% | +26.8M | +1.02B | +1.37B |
Bottom 10 Daily Decliners
| Ticker | Category | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| SQQQ | UltraPro Short QQQ | -4.2% | -4.1% | -13.9% | -542.6M | -2.89B | -2.98B |
| SPXS | S&P 500 Bear 3x | -3.0% | -3.3% | -10.7% | -66.0M | -428.9M | -442.4M |
| SPXU | UltraPro Short S&P | -2.8% | -2.8% | -9.4% | -91.8M | -560.5M | -602.7M |
| SOXS | Semi Bear 3x | -2.4% | -19.7% | -42.7% | +18.5M | +643.2M | +547.1M |
| LABD | Biotech Bear 3x | -2.4% | -4.0% | -11.4% | -0.6M | -5.2M | -5.6M |
| FAZ | Financial Bear 3x | -2.2% | -2.3% | -7.6% | -6.7M | -60.9M | -62.4M |
| QID | UltraShort QQQ | -2.9% | -2.9% | -9.2% | -7.2M | -55.4M | -46.5M |
| DRV | Real Estate Bear 3x | -2.3% | -2.4% | -8.4% | -0.3M | -2.3M | -2.8M |
| SDOW | Dow Bear | -3.1% | -3.1% | -8.9% | -6.6M | -37.9M | -30.9M |
| TECS | Tech Bear 3x | -2.6% | -2.9% | -8.8% | -0.9M | -8.0M | -6.6M |
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — YTD Fund Flows
Top YTD Inflows: GLD, VTI, VCIT, BND, SGOV, SMH, GDX, JEPQ, AGG, KOPX
Bottom YTD Flows: SQQQ, SPXU, SPXS, TLT, QQQ, SLV, BOIL, UNG, AGQ, SDOW
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
