Mon, Jan 26, 2026 | U.S. Morning Setup
S&P 500 futures are down ~0.2% in early Monday trading, though off worst premarket levels. The setup follows a choppy end to last week and renewed headline sensitivity over the weekend. Big tech is firmer in early indications, while momentum, high-beta, and retail-investor favorites are lagging.
Overnight, European markets are mostly lower after a mixed Asian session. Treasuries are firmer with modest curve flattening, and yields are down ~1–2 bp. The dollar index is off ~0.5%, extending last week’s sharp decline and sitting near its weakest level since May 2025. Yen strength remains a focal point amid intervention chatter.
In commodities, gold is up ~2% and pushing above $5,000/oz, silver is up ~6.9%, extending its recent streak, bitcoin futures are down ~1.7%, and WTI crude is up ~0.2%.
Prior Session Recap (Friday, Jan 23)
U.S. equities finished mixed on Friday, ending off best levels. The Dow fell 0.58%, the S&P 500 rose 0.03%, the Nasdaq gained 0.28%, and the Russell 2000 dropped 1.82%. The S&P and Nasdaq logged weekly declines, while the Russell 2000 gave back all of its earlier weekly outperformance, snapping a 14-session streak of outperformance versus the S&P 500—the longest since 1996.
Leadership skewed toward big tech, with MSFT the standout among the Mag 7, while energy, precious-metals miners, rails, staples retailers, QSRs, dollar stores, and ag chemicals also outperformed. Underperformance was concentrated in financials, cyclicals, transport-sensitive groups, homebuilders, apparel, and quantum computing, while most-shorted names weakened.
Cross-asset signals were notable. Gold rose 1.3% to just below $5,000, capping an 8.4% weekly gain, its best week since March 2020. Silver gained 5.2%, also at a fresh record. WTI crude rallied 2.9%, fully reversing Thursday’s pullback. Treasuries were firmer, while the dollar sold off sharply, posting its worst week since last May.
Macro Data, Policy, and Week-Ahead Context
Macro data late last week was mixed but did little to change the broader narrative. Final January University of Michigan sentiment improved to 56.4, with both current conditions and expectations higher. Inflation expectations edged lower, with 1-year expectations at 4.0% and 5-year expectations at 3.3%. S&P Global flash PMIs were slightly below expectations, with both services and manufacturing on the softer side.
Looking ahead, the calendar is lighter but still market-relevant. This week brings durable goods orders, a heavy Treasury auction slate (2s, 5s, 7s), and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where a hold is widely expected. Attention will also center on earnings from four of the Mag 7, with investors focused on AI capex, productivity, and monetization signals. Headline risk remains elevated following renewed tariff rhetoric over the weekend, including discussion of potential actions involving Canada-China trade dynamics and U.S. policy responses.
How Macro Developments Are Translating Into Thematic ETF Trading
Thematic ETF behavior continues to reflect a macro-driven bifurcation rather than broad-based risk appetite.
- Dollar weakness and commodity strength remain the most consistent macro impulse, supporting precious metals, miners, copper, and select energy-linked themes.
- Rates stability has helped prevent further downside in growth-oriented themes, but has not been sufficient to drive sustained inflows into higher-beta, policy-sensitive exposures.
- Headline volatility continues to favor short-duration, liquid expressions of macro views rather than longer-term thematic allocations.
This dynamic is visible in the data: daily and 1-month performance leadership is concentrated in real assets and leveraged commodity expressions, while year-to-date fund flows continue to favor core equity beta, bonds, and gold over more speculative thematic vehicles.
Tables
(Sourced from our universe of 382 of the most liquid US domiciled Thematic ETFs)
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — Daily performers (1D return)
Top 10 (1D %)
| Ticker | Category | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| AGQ | ProShares Ultra Silver | 13.81% | 92.70% | 297.68% | -70.5M | 60.7M | -79.6M |
| BOIL | ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas | 8.22% | 12.70% | -3.68% | -19.5M | -134.1M | -107.9M |
| MSOX | AdvisorShares MSOS Daily Leveraged ETF | 7.14% | 0.45% | -35.99% | 2.4M | 7.1M | 4.7M |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | 6.63% | 43.29% | 83.62% | -42.3M | -782.6M | -953.0M |
| MSOS | AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF | 4.98% | 2.75% | -21.02% | 0.0M | -11.0M | 0.0M |
| WGMI | CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF | 4.71% | 18.38% | -19.79% | -7.1M | 52.9M | 60.4M |
| UCO | ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil | 4.62% | 7.98% | -6.11% | 0.0M | -54.5M | -28.8M |
| KOPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | 4.60% | 19.01% | 14.12% | 70.6M | 440.1M | 828.9M |
| UNG | United States Natural Gas Fund | 4.02% | 8.29% | -5.06% | -105.4M | 15.0M | -141.9M |
| WEED | Roundhill Cannabis ETF | 3.74% | 2.81% | -10.42% | 0.0M | 0.0M | 0.0M |
Bottom 10 (1D %)
| Ticker | Category | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| SQQQ | ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ | -4.16% | -4.10% | -13.86% | -542.6M | -2.89B | -2.98B |
| SDOW | ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 | -3.13% | -3.12% | -8.94% | -6.6M | -37.9M | -30.9M |
| SPXS | Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X | -2.99% | -3.30% | -10.70% | -66.0M | -428.9M | -442.4M |
| QID | ProShares UltraShort QQQ | -2.88% | -2.89% | -9.20% | -7.2M | -55.4M | -46.5M |
| SPXU | ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 | -2.82% | -2.75% | -9.38% | -91.8M | -560.5M | -602.7M |
| TECS | Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X | -2.55% | -2.86% | -8.77% | -0.9M | -8.0M | -6.6M |
| SOXS | Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x | -2.43% | -19.65% | -42.72% | 18.5M | 643.2M | 547.1M |
| LABD | Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X | -2.40% | -4.01% | -11.43% | -0.6M | -5.2M | -5.6M |
| DRV | Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X | -2.32% | -2.37% | -8.38% | -0.3M | -2.3M | -2.8M |
| FAZ | Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X | -2.24% | -2.26% | -7.62% | -6.7M | -60.9M | -62.4M |
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — 1-month performers (1M return)
Top 10 (1M %)
| Ticker | Category | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| AGQ | ProShares Ultra Silver | 13.81% | 92.70% | 297.68% | -70.5M | 60.7M | -79.6M |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | 6.63% | 43.29% | 83.62% | -42.3M | -782.6M | -953.0M |
| SIL | Global X Silver Miners ETF | 2.17% | 38.70% | 74.42% | 1.5M | 46.3M | 12.9M |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | 1.56% | 21.80% | 28.52% | 26.8M | 1.02B | 1.37B |
| GDXJ | VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF | 1.83% | 21.73% | 32.01% | 17.4M | 636.5M | 785.0M |
| KOPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | 4.60% | 19.01% | 14.12% | 70.6M | 440.1M | 828.9M |
| WGMI | CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF | 4.71% | 18.38% | -19.79% | -7.1M | 52.9M | 60.4M |
| COPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | 1.22% | 15.87% | 11.40% | 19.7M | 180.8M | 292.6M |
| BOIL | ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas | 8.22% | 12.70% | -3.68% | -19.5M | -134.1M | -107.9M |
| UNG | United States Natural Gas Fund | 4.02% | 8.29% | -5.06% | -105.4M | 15.0M | -141.9M |
Bottom 10 (1M %)
| Ticker | Category | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| SOXS | Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x | -2.43% | -19.65% | -42.72% | 18.5M | 643.2M | 547.1M |
| SQQQ | ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ | -4.16% | -4.10% | -13.86% | -542.6M | -2.89B | -2.98B |
| LABD | Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X | -2.40% | -4.01% | -11.43% | -0.6M | -5.2M | -5.6M |
| SPXS | Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X | -2.99% | -3.30% | -10.70% | -66.0M | -428.9M | -442.4M |
| SDOW | ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 | -3.13% | -3.12% | -8.94% | -6.6M | -37.9M | -30.9M |
| SPXU | ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 | -2.82% | -2.75% | -9.38% | -91.8M | -560.5M | -602.7M |
| QID | ProShares UltraShort QQQ | -2.88% | -2.89% | -9.20% | -7.2M | -55.4M | -46.5M |
| TECS | Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X | -2.55% | -2.86% | -8.77% | -0.9M | -8.0M | -6.6M |
| DRV | Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X | -2.32% | -2.37% | -8.38% | -0.3M | -2.3M | -2.8M |
| FAZ | Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X | -2.24% | -2.26% | -7.62% | -6.7M | -60.9M | -62.4M |
Top 10 / Bottom 10 — YTD fund flows
Top 10 (Flow YTD)
| Ticker | Category | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | -0.09% | 0.54% | 3.17% | 86.5M | 5.98B | 4.29B |
| VCIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF | 0.07% | 0.32% | 0.34% | 176.0M | 3.45B | 3.53B |
| BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 0.11% | 0.32% | 0.08% | 22.2M | 3.43B | 2.78B |
| SGOV | iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF | 0.01% | 0.09% | 0.24% | 53.9M | 2.86B | 2.49B |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | 0.77% | 7.05% | 10.94% | 1.07B | 4.89B | 2.18B |
| JEPQ | JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF | 0.06% | 0.55% | 3.20% | 62.2M | 1.94B | 1.86B |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.67% | 2.74% | 8.22% | 112.6M | 1.54B | 1.49B |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | 0.08% | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.0M | 2.24B | 1.31B |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | 1.56% | 21.80% | 28.52% | 26.8M | 1.02B | 1.37B |
| KOPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | 4.60% | 19.01% | 14.12% | 70.6M | 440.1M | 828.9M |
Bottom 10 (Flow YTD)
| Ticker | Category | 1D % | 1M % | 3M % | Flow 1D | Flow 1M | Flow YTD |
| SQQQ | ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ | -4.16% | -4.10% | -13.86% | -542.6M | -2.89B | -2.98B |
| SPXU | ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 | -2.82% | -2.75% | -9.38% | -91.8M | -560.5M | -602.7M |
| SPXS | Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X | -2.99% | -3.30% | -10.70% | -66.0M | -428.9M | -442.4M |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.09% | 0.11% | -1.78% | -95.0M | -1.05B | -1.22B |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust | 0.33% | 0.72% | 4.08% | -210.4M | -1.72B | -1.31B |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | 6.63% | 43.29% | 83.62% | -42.3M | -782.6M | -953.0M |
| BOIL | ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas | 8.22% | 12.70% | -3.68% | -19.5M | -134.1M | -107.9M |
| UNG | United States Natural Gas Fund | 4.02% | 8.29% | -5.06% | -105.4M | 15.0M | -141.9M |
| AGQ | ProShares Ultra Silver | 13.81% | 92.70% | 297.68% | -70.5M | 60.7M | -79.6M |
| SDOW | ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 | -3.13% | -3.12% | -8.94% | -6.6M | -37.9M | -30.9M |
