Wednesday, February 18, 2026 • Source: FactSet
Macro & Equity
U.S. equities were marginally higher on Tuesday as the surface-level calm masked another day of strong dispersion. Cap‑weighted indices leaned on a handful of mega‑cap winners (AAPL, NVDA, AMZN) and a rebound in moneycenter banks, while software resumed its slide after last week’s brief stabilization. Rates moved higher at the front end with the curve flattening, the dollar strengthened, and the commodity complex sold off sharply—gold slipped back below $5,000 and silver gave back a meaningful chunk of its recent surge.
This morning’s setup is constructive on the margin with futures higher, but the market remains hostage to three overlapping cross‑currents: (1) AI disruption risk expanding beyond software into services and intermediaries, (2) an uneven ‘broadening’ trade where leadership rotates quickly between defensives and cyclicals, and (3) macro sensitivity into a heavy mid‑week data slate (durables, housing, industrial production) and the January FOMC minutes.
What Changed Today?
The biggest change from the prior session was the re‑acceleration of the ‘anti‑software’ tape: the group rolled over again even as mega‑cap tech held up better, reinforcing the market’s preference for AI ‘platforms’ over AI ‘victims.’ At the same time, the dollar’s bid and the sharp pullback in precious metals tightened financial conditions at the margin and reversed part of the inflation‑hedge momentum that had been supporting commodities and related thematic exposures. Finally, the pickup in M&A/activist activity (notably WBD/PSKY, TRIP/Starboard, and additional deal chatter) provided a counterweight to the disruption narrative, helping keep breadth positive despite the softness in parts of growth.
Investment Outlook
From a CIO lens, the tape is still best understood as a regime of high dispersion rather than a clean risk‑on/risk‑off signal. The market is paying for ‘certainty’—balance‑sheet strength, visible AI monetization, and defensible demand—while aggressively discounting business models exposed to disintermediation risk or to discretionary enterprise spend. That leaves thematic portfolios better served by barbell construction: maintain exposure to AI infrastructure beneficiaries with clear capex pull‑through, while pairing it with quality defensives and rate‑sensitive ballast that can absorb volatility when disruption headlines spike and CTA flows amplify downside.
Near term, the next risk checkpoint is macro. If incoming activity data confirms cooling without an inflation re‑acceleration, the setup supports duration and ‘quality’ themes; if data re‑tightens the rate path, the market’s tolerance for long‑duration growth—especially in software—will remain limited. We are watching the policy and geopolitical backdrop as well: any tangible tariff relief would help cyclicals and parts of domestic industrial themes, while Middle East headlines continue to leak into energy and defense volatility.
How Macro Is Showing Up in Themes
- Dollar strength has recently acted as a headwind for commodities/precious‑metals themes and a modest tailwind for domestic demand themes.
• Curve flattening (front‑end pressure) tends to reward quality and rate‑sensitive defensives, while weighing on levered cyclicals and smaller banks.
• The AI narrative is bifurcating: infrastructure and semis can still work on capex visibility, but ‘AI disruption’ has become a persistent valuation overhang for software, brokers, and certain service intermediaries.
• Elevated single‑stock volatility argues for using diversified thematic wrappers rather than concentrated single‑name expressions.
Thematic Tail of the Tape
Today’s cross‑asset message was consistent with dispersion: mega‑cap leadership and a financials bounce kept the index tape stable, but the renewed drawdown in software and the reversal in precious metals tightened the opportunity set. In the ETF universe, leadership is being defined by (a) exposures that benefit from hyperscaler capex and AI compute intensity, (b) selective cyclicals linked to mobility/travel and consumer services, and (c) defensives when rates rally. Flows remain the tell—watch whether investors continue to fund duration and quality themes while reducing exposure to the most headline‑sensitive ‘disruption’ baskets.
Performance & Flows Tables
Top 10 Daily Performers
| ETF | Name | 1-Day % | 1-Month % | 1-Month Flows | YTD Flows |
| FLYU | MicroSectors Travel 3x Leveraged ETN | +5.79% | -17.46% | +$0 | +$0 |
| LABU | Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares | +3.59% | -2.27% | -$90M | -$209M |
| TAN | Invesco Solar ETF | +3.37% | +15.40% | +$277M | +$393M |
| JETS | U.S. Global Jets ETF | +2.76% | +4.00% | +$120M | +$51M |
| FRNW | Fidelity Clean Energy ETF | +2.48% | +6.14% | ||
| FAN | First Trust Global Wind Energy ETF | +2.25% | +8.07% | -$1M | -$1M |
| ARKG | ARK Genomic Revolution ETF | +2.01% | -9.08% | +$46M | +$116M |
| BEDZ | AdvisorShares Hotel ETF | +1.95% | -0.43% | +$0 | -$2M |
| LFSC | F/M Emerald Life Sciences Innovation ETF | +1.69% | +0.79% | -$354,735 | -$627,501 |
| ICLN | iShares Global Clean Energy ETF | +1.68% | +5.82% | -$36M | -$36M |
Bottom 10 Daily Performers
| ETF | Name | 1-Day % | 1-Month % | 1-Month Flows | YTD Flows |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | -4.80% | -18.08% | -$470M | -$1B |
| SILJ | Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF | -4.62% | -3.79% | +$408M | +$568M |
| CRPT | First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Economy ETF | -3.78% | -31.52% | +$1M | +$1M |
| KOPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | -3.59% | +4.96% | +$1B | +$2B |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | -3.55% | +3.10% | +$2B | +$2B |
| WGMI | CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF | -3.24% | -21.66% | -$88M | -$27M |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | -3.12% | +6.39% | -$2B | +$811M |
| STCE | Schwab Crypto Thematic ETF | -2.96% | -24.85% | +$5M | +$5M |
| BKCH | Global X Blockchain ETF | -2.81% | -23.69% | -$73M | -$59M |
| BUG | Global X Cybersecurity ETF | -2.62% | -8.98% | +$19M | +$190M |
Top 10 1-Month Performers
| ETF | Name | 1-Day % | 1-Month % | 1-Month Flows | YTD Flows |
| TAN | Invesco Solar ETF | +3.37% | +15.40% | +$277M | +$393M |
| EMIF | iShares Emerging Markets Infrastructure ETF | +0.54% | +12.23% | +$6M | +$6M |
| MLPX | Global X MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF | -1.00% | +11.97% | +$53M | |
| UMI | USCF Midstream Energy Income Fund ETF | -0.63% | +11.70% | +$11M | +$11M |
| ENFR | Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF | -0.83% | +11.62% | +$4M | +$65,000 |
| TPYP | Tortoise North American Pipeline Fund | -0.73% | +11.58% | +$10M | +$10M |
| TOLZ | ProShares DJ Brookfield Global Infrastructure ETF | -0.28% | +10.77% | -$5M | -$20M |
| NFRA | FlexShares STOXX Global Broad Infrastructure Index Fund | +0.28% | +10.64% | -$22M | -$74M |
| GII | State Street SPDR S&P Global Infrastructure ETF | +0.46% | +10.26% | +$46M | +$46M |
| IGF | iShares Global Infrastructure ETF | +0.40% | +10.25% | +$39M | +$113M |
Bottom 10 1-Month Performers
| ETF | Name | 1-Day % | 1-Month % | 1-Month Flows | YTD Flows |
| MSOX | AdvisorShares MSOS Daily Leveraged ETF | -2.38% | -35.65% | +$7M | +$9M |
| CRPT | First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Economy ETF | -3.78% | -31.52% | +$1M | +$1M |
| DAPP | VanEck Digital Transformation ETF | -2.31% | -25.52% | -$18M | -$17M |
| STCE | Schwab Crypto Thematic ETF | -2.96% | -24.85% | +$5M | +$5M |
| BKCH | Global X Blockchain ETF | -2.81% | -23.69% | -$73M | -$59M |
| WGMI | CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF | -3.24% | -21.66% | -$88M | -$27M |
| BITQ | Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF | -1.75% | -21.08% | +$11M | +$12M |
| FDIG | Fidelity Crypto Industry and Digital Payments ETF | -1.64% | -21.05% | ||
| IBLC | iShares Blockchain and Tech ETF | -1.29% | -20.95% | -$2M | -$2M |
| WEED | Roundhill Cannabis ETF | -1.61% | -18.69% | +$0 | +$0 |
Top 10 1-Month Inflows
| ETF | Name | 1-Day % | 1-Month % | 1-Month Flows | YTD Flows |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | +0.12% | -1.40% | +$6B | +$9B |
| SGOV | iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF | +0.00% | +0.27% | +$3B | +$5B |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | -0.41% | +5.18% | +$3B | +$4B |
| BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | -0.01% | +1.24% | +$3B | +$4B |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | +0.01% | +1.27% | +$3B | +$3B |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | +0.01% | +1.28% | +$3B | +$3B |
| VTV | Vanguard Value ETF | -0.14% | +3.77% | +$2B | +$2B |
| IGV | iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF | -2.19% | -17.65% | +$2B | +$1B |
| VCIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF | +0.05% | +1.29% | +$2B | +$5B |
| SCHD | Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF | -0.60% | +8.72% | +$2B | +$2B |
Bottom 10 1-Month Outflows
| ETF | Name | 1-Day % | 1-Month % | 1-Month Flows | YTD Flows |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | +0.16% | -1.27% | -$11B | -$16B |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | +0.17% | +2.75% | -$3B | -$4B |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust Series I | -0.10% | -3.21% | -$2B | -$5B |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | -3.12% | +6.39% | -$2B | +$811M |
| VTEB | Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF | +0.06% | +0.81% | -$1B | -$536M |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | +0.03% | -1.02% | -$976M | -$3B |
| KLMN | Invesco MSCI North America Climate ETF | +0.15% | -1.63% | -$672M | -$672M |
| EEMV | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Min Vol Factor ETF | -0.07% | +2.95% | -$616M | -$616M |
| KWEB | KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF | -0.21% | -8.37% | -$470M | -$215M |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | -4.80% | -18.08% | -$470M | -$1B |
Top 10 YTD Inflows
| ETF | Name | 1-Day % | 1-Month % | 1-Month Flows | YTD Flows |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | +0.12% | -1.40% | +$6B | +$9B |
| SGOV | iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF | +0.00% | +0.27% | +$3B | +$5B |
| VCIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF | +0.05% | +1.29% | +$2B | +$5B |
| BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | -0.01% | +1.24% | +$3B | +$4B |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | -0.41% | +5.18% | +$3B | +$4B |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | +0.01% | +1.27% | +$3B | +$3B |
| AGG | iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | +0.01% | +1.28% | +$3B | +$3B |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | -0.05% | +1.78% | +$1B | +$3B |
| VUG | Vanguard Growth ETF | +0.34% | -5.27% | +$893M | +$3B |
| CGDV | Capital Group Dividend Value ETF | +0.26% | +2.02% | +$1B | +$2B |
Bottom 10 YTD Outflows
| ETF | Name | 1-Day % | 1-Month % | 1-Month Flows | YTD Flows |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | +0.16% | -1.27% | -$11B | -$16B |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust Series I | -0.10% | -3.21% | -$2B | -$5B |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | +0.17% | +2.75% | -$3B | -$4B |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | +0.03% | -1.02% | -$976M | -$3B |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | -4.80% | -18.08% | -$470M | -$1B |
| VIG | Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF | -0.04% | +0.68% | -$209M | -$689M |
| KLMN | Invesco MSCI North America Climate ETF | +0.15% | -1.63% | -$672M | -$672M |
| IYR | iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF | +0.99% | +2.95% | -$444M | -$656M |
| EEMV | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Min Vol Factor ETF | -0.07% | +2.95% | -$616M | -$616M |
| VTEB | Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF | +0.06% | +0.81% | -$1B | -$536M |
