ETFThemes.com weekly fund-flow and performance analysis.
High Level
The thematic ETF tape remains risk-on, but increasingly selective. YTD flows are still concentrated in large, liquid “core + quality growth” exposures: dividend/core equity, semiconductors, software, AI, electrification and infrastructure. Over the last month, the same leadership has broadened into higher-beta AI, blockchain, clean energy, nuclear/hydrogen and climate transition. Over the last week, however, the flow picture became more uneven, with semiconductors, ESG, natural resources, biotech, REITs and disruptive tech seeing outflows even as performance stayed strong in several of those groups.
The headline backdrop explains the split. AI demand, data-center buildout, memory supply constraints, Anthropic growth, Nvidia/Corning fiber capacity, and potential data-center IPO activity continue to support AI infrastructure themes. At the same time, Iran-related energy inflation, hawkish Fed commentary, no-cuts pricing, tariff risks and higher input costs raise the risk that long-duration thematic equities remain vulnerable to rates and margin pressure.
Flow scorecard: YTD vs. 1M vs. 1W
| Category | Funds | YTD Flow | 1M Flow | 1W Flow | 1M Return | 1W Return |
| Dividend / core income bucket | 8 | $36.3B | $9.0B | $2.1B | 5.8% | 0.5% |
| Semiconductors | 7 | $8.3B | $4.1B | -$262M | 46.1% | 8.9% |
| ESG | 10 | $5.8B | $436M | -$357M | 10.5% | 2.7% |
| Software | 6 | $5.6B | $697M | $145M | 10.1% | 5.6% |
| Momentum | 10 | $4.9B | $2.5B | $685M | 13.9% | 3.5% |
| Robotics & AI | 9 | $4.1B | $1.3B | $435M | 23.4% | 5.7% |
| Electrification | 6 | $4.0B | $1.5B | $229M | 16.6% | 2.3% |
| Infrastructure | 7 | $2.9B | $1.0B | $361M | 4.3% | 0.4% |
| Aero/Defense | 3 | $2.1B | $137M | -$154M | -0.4% | 2.0% |
| Legacy Energy | 3 | $1.7B | $494M | $344M | -0.9% | -4.7% |
Interpretation: YTD flows show a barbell: investors continue to allocate to income/core equity vehicles while also funding AI infrastructure, semis, software, electrification and infrastructure. The 1M window shows stronger risk appetite, with semis, momentum, AI, electrification and infrastructure all seeing meaningful inflows. The 1W window is more cautious: flows remain positive into AI, infrastructure, energy and clean energy, but semis and disruptive tech saw outflows despite strong returns.
Strongest trends
- AI infrastructure remains the dominant growth narrative.
Semiconductors had the strongest pure thematic YTD flow profile at +$8.3B, with +$4.1B over 1M, while the average semiconductor ETF was up 46.1% over 1M and 8.9% over 1W. SMH, SOXX and smaller semi ETFs were among the strongest performance contributors. Robotics & AI added +$4.1B YTD, +$1.3B over 1M and +$435M over 1W, with the average fund up 23.4% over 1M. The news flow supported the move: Anthropic growth, AI model policy developments, Nvidia’s investment in Corning, data-center financing activity, and memory supply constraints all reinforced the “AI capex is still real” thesis. - Electrification and grid infrastructure are becoming AI-adjacent winners.
Electrification funds attracted +$4.0B YTD, +$1.5B over 1M and +$229M over 1W, with the group up 16.6% over 1M. GRID alone had +$3.3B YTD and +$1.2B over 1M, making it one of the clearest beneficiaries of the power-capacity narrative. This is no longer just a clean-energy trade; it is increasingly a data-center, grid reliability and power infrastructure trade. - Nuclear, hydrogen and clean energy are improving tactically, but the quality of flows differs.
The Uranium/Nuclear bucket had +$1.5B YTD, +$258M over 1M and +$71M over 1W, with a 23.8% 1M return. Clean Energy had only +$35M YTD, but it improved to +$241M over 1M and +$138M over 1W, suggesting a tactical rotation rather than a fully confirmed long-term allocation trend. HYDR, SMRF, NLR and TAN all participated in the 1M rebound, but the strongest “institutional-quality” thematic read remains power-grid and nuclear-adjacent infrastructure rather than broad clean energy. - Blockchain is the strongest short-term performance rebound.
Blockchain funds averaged +40.1% over 1M and +15.9% over 1W, with WGMI, BKCH, BITQ, DAPP and BLOK among the top performers. However, flows were more modest at +$394M over 1M and +$43M over 1W, with only +$212M YTD. That makes blockchain a powerful momentum trade, but less confirmed by durable allocation than semis, AI, electrification or infrastructure. - Infrastructure is quietly durable.
Infrastructure funds saw +$2.9B YTD, +$1.0B over 1M and +$361M over 1W. PAVE was the standout, with +$1.6B YTD, +$505M over 1M and +$213M over 1W. Infrastructure is benefiting from the same backdrop that supports electrification: data-center spending, resilient services activity, delayed but persistent capex needs, and geopolitical supply-chain concerns.
Weakest trends
| Category | YTD Flow | 1M Flow | 1W Flow | 1M Return | 1W Return |
| Natural Resources | -$6.1B | -$4.5B | -$1.8B | 2.1% | 3.2% |
| Internet & Metaverse | -$2.0B | $53M | -$218M | 12.6% | 3.3% |
| Finance / Fintech | -$930M | $126M | -$46M | 6.5% | 0.6% |
| Low Vol | -$444M | -$216M | $11M | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Climate / Carbon | -$329M | $880M | $30M | 10.6% | 2.0% |
| REITs | -$127M | -$373M | -$186M | 7.7% | 0.9% |
| Gaming & Esports | -$111M | -$25M | -$1M | 5.0% | 0.4% |
| Biotechnology | -$80M | -$552M | -$524M | 7.7% | 4.9% |
Natural resources are the weakest flow trend despite pockets of commodity strength.
The category saw -$6.1B YTD, -$4.5B over 1M and -$1.8B over 1W. GLD and SLV outflows were major contributors, while KOPX and GDX also saw recent redemptions despite performance resilience. The headlines should be commodity-supportive in theory, given Iran-war energy risks, constrained oil flows, fertilizer price strength and lithium-related earnings upside, but ETF flows suggest investors are reducing commodity hedges as diplomacy hopes improve.
Biotech is rallying but not yet attracting capital.
Biotech averaged +7.7% over 1M and +4.9% over 1W, but flows were -$552M over 1M and -$524M over 1W. LABU saw strong tactical inflows, but broader biotech allocations remain weak. That suggests the rebound is more trading-oriented than conviction-driven.
REITs and low-volatility themes remain rate-sensitive laggards.
REITs had -$373M over 1M and -$186M over 1W, while low-volatility funds had -$216M over 1M. The macro backdrop is not helping: Fed commentary leaned higher-for-longer, markets moved toward pricing no cuts through year-end, and ISM prices stayed elevated.
Internet, metaverse and fintech remain under-owned.
Internet & Metaverse had -$2.0B YTD and another -$218M over 1W, despite a 12.6% 1M return. Fintech had -$930M YTD. These categories are participating in the risk rebound, but flows have not confirmed durable sponsorship.
Top ETF inflows
| Ticker | Category | YTD Flow | 1M Return | 1W Return |
| VTI | Dividend / core bucket | $21.0B | 11.3% | 2.2% |
| SCHD | Dividend | $7.6B | 3.3% | -1.3% |
| IGV | Software | $5.8B | 9.2% | 4.7% |
| SMH | Semiconductors | $5.1B | 38.8% | 8.5% |
| EFG | ESG | $5.1B | 8.7% | 3.5% |
| CGDV | Dividend | $4.6B | 10.5% | 2.2% |
| GRID | Electrification | $3.3B | 18.6% | 3.5% |
| BAI | Robotics & AI | $2.8B | 34.2% | 7.0% |
| SOXX | Semiconductors | $2.3B | 47.3% | 9.8% |
| VYM | Dividend | $2.0B | 5.6% | -0.1% |
Best performance signals
| Ticker | Category | 1M Return | YTD Flow | 1M Flow |
| HYDR | Hydrogen / energy transition | 72.3% | $20M | $21M |
| WGMI | Blockchain | 65.6% | $35M | $87M |
| XSD | Semiconductors | 56.4% | $165M | $164M |
| BKCH | Blockchain | 55.0% | -$24M | $54M |
| FTXL | Semiconductors | 50.6% | $34M | $76M |
| SOXX | Semiconductors | 47.3% | $2.3B | $974M |
| PSI | Semiconductors | 46.4% | $298M | $201M |
| SOXQ | Semiconductors | 45.0% | $388M | $201M |
| BITQ | Blockchain | 44.6% | $15M | $9M |
| ARTY | AI / future tech | 41.1% | $331M | $114M |
Investment conclusion
The strongest confirmed thematic trends are semiconductors, AI infrastructure, electrification, grid/power infrastructure, software and infrastructure. These categories combine positive YTD flows, strong 1M performance and supportive news flow tied to AI capex, data centers, energy demand and supply constraints.
The strongest tactical rebounds are blockchain, hydrogen, nuclear, clean energy and high-beta AI, but these are more momentum-sensitive and less uniformly confirmed by flows.
The weakest overall trends are natural resources, internet/metaverse, fintech, biotech, REITs, gaming and low-volatility exposures. Some have improved performance, but flows remain negative or inconsistent. The main risk to the rally is that the same AI and energy developments supporting thematic growth could also reinforce higher inflation, higher rates and renewed pressure on long-duration equity valuations.
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc. and StreetAccount
Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
