Theme Signal
Natural Resources, biotech, software and semiconductors are leading as investors extend the earnings-led rally, while MLPs and energy infrastructure lag despite crude stabilizing.
Investment Digest
The thematic backdrop remains constructive after last week’s rally pushed the S&P 500 to a new record high, with software, semiconductors and Mag 7 leadership supported by strong Q2 earnings, cleaner positioning after July’s momentum unwind and a softer payrolls report that reduced near-term Fed-hike anxiety. The latest market update also flagged “bad news is good news” dynamics after July payrolls unexpectedly fell, with September hike odds dropping, while oil declined sharply on expectations for a Strait of Hormuz reopening deal. This week’s focus shifts to CPI, PPI, retail sales, Treasury supply and whether inflation data allow the earnings-led rebound to keep broadening. The key tactical message is that risk appetite is firm, but leadership is no longer just semiconductors: miners, software, biotech, space and selective disruptive growth are also participating.
Thematic Tail of the Tape
The latest theme data show Natural Resources and higher-beta growth leading. GDX rose 7.11%, ARKG gained 6.14%, SILJ advanced 6.04%, LABU added 5.69% and ARKK rose 4.89%. Semiconductors also continued to repair, with XSD up 4.66%, FTXL up 2.58%, SOXX up 2.02% and SMH up 1.96%. Software remained constructive, with WCLD up 4.11%, CLOU up 3.88% and IGV up 3.29%. The weakest areas were concentrated in MLPs and energy infrastructure: AMZA fell 1.98%, MLPX lost 1.49%, ATMP declined 1.48%, ENFR fell 1.47% and UMI dropped 1.44%. Flows show broad beta, semiconductors and dividend/value still well sponsored, with VTI taking in $5.28B over 1M, EFV $3.82B, SOXX $3.74B, SCHD $3.56B and GLD $2.06B.
Bottom Line
The tactical takeaway is to stay constructive into CPI, but keep the portfolio diversified across AI hardware, software, Natural Resources and dividend/value ballast. Semiconductors remain flow-supported, with SOXX and SMH combining for $5.48B of 1M inflows and $19.78B YTD, while price action is improving but not yet fully repaired. Natural Resources have the strongest latest price signal, though GLD and SLV still carry large YTD outflows. Software is working on price, but IGV’s 1M outflow shows investors are not fully recommitted. The preferred posture is overweight selective semiconductors, software, biotech, Natural Resources, broad beta and dividend/value, while underweighting MLPs, small caps, weaker momentum sleeves and crowded broad-growth exposure until CPI, PPI and retail sales confirm the inflation and consumer backdrop.
Thematic ETF Performance — Top 5 (1D)
| ETF | Theme | 1D | 1W | 1M |
| GDX | Natural Resources | 7.11% | 18.20% | 18.65% |
| ARKG | Biotechnology | 6.14% | 8.63% | 1.03% |
| SILJ | Natural Resources | 6.04% | 17.36% | 15.04% |
| LABU | Biotechnology | 5.69% | 21.57% | -14.07% |
| ARKK | Disruptive Technology | 4.89% | 8.01% | -2.17% |
Thematic ETF Performance — Bottom 5 (1D)
| ETF | Theme | 1D | 1W | 1M |
| AMZA | MLP/Energy Infrastructure | -1.98% | -0.74% | 1.45% |
| MLPX | MLP/Energy Infrastructure | -1.49% | -1.82% | -2.97% |
| ATMP | MLP/Energy Infrastructure | -1.48% | -2.08% | -0.11% |
| ENFR | MLP/Energy Infrastructure | -1.47% | -1.92% | -1.27% |
| UMI | MLP/Energy Infrastructure | -1.44% | -1.76% | -1.83% |
ETF Fund Flows — Top 5 Inflows (1M)
| ETF | Theme | 1M Flows | 1M Return | 1D |
| VTI | Broad Market | $5.28B | 3.29% | 0.71% |
| EFV | International Value | $3.82B | 5.30% | 0.76% |
| SOXX | Semiconductors | $3.74B | -1.53% | 2.02% |
| SCHD | Dividend | $3.56B | 4.18% | 0.59% |
| GLD | Natural Resources | $2.06B | 5.56% | 2.26% |
ETF Fund Flows — Top 5 Outflows (1M)
| ETF | Theme | 1M Flows | 1M Return | 1D |
| IWM | Broad Small Caps | $(2.16B) | 1.81% | 1.11% |
| MTUM | Momentum | $(959.89M) | -1.00% | 0.37% |
| VUG | Broad Growth | $(890.87M) | 4.10% | 0.81% |
| FTXL | Semiconductors | $(872.80M) | -2.23% | 2.58% |
| IGV | Software | $(536.54M) | 9.09% | 3.29% |
ETF Fund Flows — Top 5 Inflows (YTD)
| ETF | Theme | YTD Flows | 1M Return | 1D |
| VTI | Broad Market | $37.71B | 3.29% | 0.71% |
| SCHD | Dividend | $16.98B | 4.18% | 0.59% |
| SOXX | Semiconductors | $10.97B | -1.53% | 2.02% |
| SMH | Semiconductors | $8.81B | 0.21% | 1.96% |
| QQQ | Broad Growth | $8.19B | 1.92% | 1.17% |
ETF Fund Flows — Top 5 Outflows (YTD)
| ETF | Theme | YTD Flows | 1M Return | 1D |
| IWM | Broad Small Caps | $(7.60B) | 1.81% | 1.11% |
| GLD | Natural Resources | $(7.47B) | 5.56% | 2.26% |
| SLV | Natural Resources | $(3.10B) | 5.58% | 2.95% |
| FDN | Internet & Metaverse | $(1.49B) | 6.52% | 2.09% |
| EFV | International Value | $(1.43B) | 5.30% | 0.76% |
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
